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| #157123 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:58 PM 29.Oct.2007) TCPAT1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM NOEL ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162007 500 PM EDT MON OCT 29 2007 ...NOEL SLIGHTLY STRONGER... ...HEAVY RAINS EXPECTED ACROSS HISPANIOLA...PORTIONS OF THE BAHAMAS...AND EASTERN CUBA... AT 500 PM EDT...2100Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN CUBA IN THE PROVINCES OF CAMAGUEY AND LAS TUNAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN CUBA IN THE PROVINCES OF GUANTANAMO AND HOLGUIN. AT 500 PM EDT...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN PENINSULA OF HAITI FROM THE NORTHERN BORDER OF THE HAITI-DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TO GONAIVES. INTERESTS IN SOUTHERN FLORIDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF NOEL. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 500 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NOEL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 74.2 WEST OR ABOUT 50 MILES... 80 KM...NORTH OF THE EASTERN TIP OF CUBA AND ABOUT 215 MILES...340 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF GREAT EXUMA ISLAND IN THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. NOEL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF NOEL SHOULD MOVE BETWEEN THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS AND THE NORTHERN COAST OF CUBA TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 200 MILES...325 KM FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1001 MB...29.56 INCHES. ABOVE NORMAL TIDES ARE LIKELY WITHIN THE WARNING AREAS. NOEL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 10 TO 20 INCHES OVER HISPANIOLA...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM TOTALS OF 30 INCHES. TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES...WITH POSSIBLE MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHEASTERN CUBA...AND THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PUERTO RICO THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. THESE RAINS...PARTICULARLY IN HISPANIOLA...ARE EXPECTED TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. REPEATING THE 500 PM EDT POSITION...20.9 N...74.2 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 800 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100 PM EDT. $$ FORECASTER KNABB |
