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| #157125 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:00 PM 29.Oct.2007) TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM NOEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 9 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162007 500 PM EDT MON OCT 29 2007 THE CENTER OF NOEL EMERGED OFF THE NORTHWESTERN COAST OF HAITI EARLIER TODAY...HAS SINCE BEEN MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 325/13...AND IS NOW JUST NORTH OF THE EASTERN TIP OF CUBA. THE CIRCULATION CENTER WAS TOO CLOSE TO LAND FOR THE AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT TO FLY DIRECTLY THROUGH THE CENTER...BUT FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS AND SURFACE PRESSURE ESTIMATES ARE CONSISTENT WITH A POSITION ESTIMATED FROM VISIBLE IMAGERY. MAXIMUM FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS WERE 46 KT...CORRESPONDING TO ABOUT 37 KT AT THE SURFACE...WHILE SFMR ESTIMATES PEAKED A LITTLE HIGHER NEAR 50 KT. THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS SET TO 45 KT AS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THESE ESTIMATES. THE CENTRAL DEEP CONVECTION IS LIMITED AND THE STORM HAS A VERY SPRAWLING APPEARANCE...BUT PLENTY OF RAINBANDS EXTEND WELL TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST...CONTINUING TO BRING HEAVY RAINS TO HISPANIOLA. THE MODELS HAVE PICKED UP ON THE TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND HAVE GENERALLY SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT. DURING THE FIRST 48 HOURS...THE GFDL REMAINS THE EASTERN OUTLIER BUT HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE OTHERS...WHILE THE GFS PROVIDES THE WESTERNMOST TRACK. DURING THIS PERIOD NOEL SHOULD CONTINUE GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD TO THE SOUTHWEST OF A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE. THEREAFTER...NOEL SHOULD BEGIN TO TURN NORTHWARD AND EVENTUALLY NORTHEASTWARD AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST. THE MODELS DO NOT AGREE ON HOW SOON THIS TURN WILL MATERIALIZE AND HOW FAST NOEL WILL MOVE OUT TO SEA...PERHAPS DUE TO VARIATIONS IN THE PREDICTED VERTICAL DEPTH OF THE SYSTEM. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS DOWN THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE...WHICH IS A WESTWARD SHIFT FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE AND OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST ARE ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. MODEST STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS UNTIL WESTERLY WIND SHEAR INCREASES...WITH WEAKENING EXPECTED THEREAFTER AS NOEL HEADS NORTHEASTWARD AND EVENTUALLY BECOMES EXTRATROPICAL. THIS FORECAST IS AGAIN IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE LGEM AND HWRF. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 29/2100Z 20.9N 74.2W 45 KT 12HR VT 30/0600Z 22.4N 75.6W 45 KT 24HR VT 30/1800Z 23.7N 77.2W 50 KT 36HR VT 31/0600Z 24.7N 78.5W 50 KT 48HR VT 31/1800Z 25.8N 79.0W 50 KT 72HR VT 01/1800Z 27.5N 77.5W 45 KT 96HR VT 02/1800Z 31.0N 73.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 03/1800Z 35.0N 68.0W 35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL $$ FORECASTER KNABB |
