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| #157169 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:49 AM 30.Oct.2007) TCPAT1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM NOEL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 10A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162007 200 AM EDT TUE OCT 30 2007 ...NOEL MOVING VERY CLOSE OR OVER THE NORTH COAST OF CUBA... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF CIEGO DE AVILA...CAMAGUEY...LAS TUNAS... HOLGUIN...AND GUANTANAMO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS. AT 2 AM EDT...0600Z...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. INTEREST IN SOUTHERN FLORIDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF NOEL. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR SOUTHEAST FLORIDA LATER TODAY. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 200 AM EDT...0600Z...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND RADAR FROM HOLGUIN CUBA INDICATE THAT THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NOEL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.2 NORTH... LONGITUDE 75.6 WEST...VERY NEAR OR OVER PUNTA LUCRECIA ON THE NORTH COAST OF CUBA AND ABOUT 285 MILES...460 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF NASSAU IN THE BAHAMAS. NOEL HAS BEEN MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/HR DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. HOWEVER...NOEL IS EXPECTED TO TURN TO THE NORTHWEST WITH THE SAME FORWARD SPEED LATER TODAY. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF NOEL SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE PARALLEL TO THE NORTH OF COAST OF CUBA TODAY. DATA FROM A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 55 MPH...90 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280 KM MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE FROM CUBAN SURFACE OBSERVATIONS IS 999 MB...29.50 INCHES. ABOVE NORMAL TIDES ARE LIKELY WITHIN THE WARNING AREAS. NOEL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 10 TO 20 INCHES OVER HISPANIOLA...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM TOTALS OF 30 INCHES. TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES...WITH POSSIBLE MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHEASTERN CUBA...AND THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS. THESE RAINS...PARTICULARLY IN HISPANIOLA...ARE EXPECTED TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. REPEATING THE 200 AM EDT POSITION...21.2 N...75.6 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...55 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 500 AM EDT. $$ FORECASTER AVILA |
