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| #157202 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:43 AM 30.Oct.2007) TCPAT1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM NOEL ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162007 500 AM EDT TUE OCT 30 2007 ...NOEL HUGGING THE NORTH COAST OF CUBA... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF CIEGO DE AVILA...CAMAGUEY...LAS TUNAS... HOLGUIN...AND GUANTANAMO. AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS. INTEREST IN SOUTHERN FLORIDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF NOEL. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR SOUTHEAST FLORIDA LATER TODAY. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 500 AM EDT...0900Z...RADAR DATA FROM HOLGUIN CUBA INDICATE THAT THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NOEL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.0 WEST...VERY NEAR THE TOWN OF GIBARA ON THE NORTH COAST OF CUBA...AND ABOUT 270 MILES...435 KM... SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF NASSAU IN THE BAHAMAS. NOEL HAS BEEN MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR. HOWEVER...NOEL SHOULD TURN TO THE NORTHWEST WITH THE SAME FORWARD SPEED LATER TODAY. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF NOEL SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE VERY NEAR AND PARALLEL TO THE NORTH COAST OF CUBA FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280 KM MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 999 MB...29.50 INCHES. ABOVE NORMAL TIDES ARE LIKELY WITHIN THE WARNING AREAS. NOEL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 10 TO 20 INCHES OVER HISPANIOLA...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM TOTALS OF 30 INCHES. TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES...WITH POSSIBLE MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHEASTERN CUBA...AND THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS. THESE RAINS...PARTICULARLY IN HISPANIOLA...ARE EXPECTED TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS. REPEATING THE 500 AM EDT POSITION...21.3 N...76.0 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 800 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100 AM EDT. $$ FORECASTER AVILA |
