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| #157204 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:43 AM 30.Oct.2007) TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM NOEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 11 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162007 500 AM EDT TUE OCT 30 2007 SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND RADAR FROM HOLGUIN CUBA INDICATE THAT CENTER OF NOEL HAS BEEN HUGGING THE NORTH COAST OF CUBA. THE CUBAN WEATHER STATION 78365...PUNTA LUCRECIA... REPORTED A WIND SHIFT AND A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF NEAR 1000 MB AS THE CENTER MOVED NEARBY. THE RADAR ALSO SHOWS THAT MOST OF THE STRONGEST CONVECTIVE BANDS ARE TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER...WHILE THE CLOUD PATTERN IS A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED ON SATELLITE. THE SFMR ON BOARD OF THE U.S AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE RECENTLY MEASURED SURFACE WINDS OF 52 KNOTS TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER. BASED ON THIS DATA...THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN SET AT 50 KNOTS. NOEL HAS A CHANCE TO STRENGTHEN A LITTLE BIT MORE AS IT MOVES AWAY FROM CUBA AND BEFORE THE SHEAR INCREASES. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST BRINGS THE INTENSITY TO 65 KNOTS WHICH IS A BLEND OF SHIPS AND THE GFDL MODELS. CUBAN RADARS INDICATE THAT NOEL HAS BEEN MOVING WESTWARD OR 280 DEGREES AT 10 KNOTS. HOWEVER...THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO BE SHORT-LIVED AND THE CYCLONE SHOULD TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST LATER TODAY AND THEN NORTHWARD...AS A MID-LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND FLORIDA. THEREAFTER...NOEL SHOULD RECURVE OR MOVE NORTHEAST WITH INCREASING FORWARD SPEED AWAY FROM THE UNITED STATES. IT SHOULD THEN BECOME EXTRATROPICAL BEYOND 3 DAYS OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH ALL TRACK GUIDANCE WHICH UNANIMOUSLY TURNS NOEL SHARPLY TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AWAY FROM FLORIDA IN ABOUT 36 HOURS WHEN THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO BE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS. HOWEVER...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MAY STILL BE REQUIRED FOR SOUTHEAST FLORIDA LATER TODAY IF NOEL MOVES FATHER WESTWARD THAN ANTICIPATED AND THE WINDS EXPAND. THE STRONG GUSTY WINDS CURRENTLY AFFECTING SOUTHEAST FLORIDA ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE NORTH AND ARE NOT DIRECTLY RELATED TO THE CIRCULATION OF NOEL. SEE STATEMENTS FROM NWS LOCAL FORECAST OFFICE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 30/0900Z 21.3N 76.0W 50 KT 12HR VT 30/1800Z 22.2N 77.4W 55 KT 24HR VT 31/0600Z 23.3N 78.2W 60 KT 36HR VT 31/1800Z 24.5N 78.5W 65 KT 48HR VT 01/0600Z 26.0N 77.8W 60 KT 72HR VT 02/0600Z 31.0N 72.4W 45 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 03/0600Z 37.0N 66.5W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 04/0600Z 45.0N 58.0W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL $$ FORECASTER AVILA |
