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| #157239 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:03 AM 30.Oct.2007) TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM NOEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 12 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162007 1100 AM EDT TUE OCT 30 2007 VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY...RADAR IMAGERY FROM CAMAGUEY CUBA...AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS CLEARLY INDICATE THAT THE CENTER OF NOEL REMAINS INLAND OVER EASTERN CUBA. PLENTY OF RAIN BANDS... HOWEVER...STILL EXTEND WELL AWAY FROM THE CENTER IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE...CONTINUING THE HEAVY RAINS FOR HISPANIOLA THAT HAVE ALSO SPREAD INTO THE BAHAMAS. MY BEST ESTIMATE OF THE MAXIMUM WINDS IS 40 KT...WHICH WOULD MOST LIKELY BE OCCURRING IN THE BANDS BETWEEN EASTERN CUBA AND THE BAHAMAS. THE NEXT AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS NOT SCHEDULED UNTIL LATE TONIGHT SINCE THE CENTER OF NOEL WILL LIKELY SPEND THE DAY OVER LAND...AS THE AIRCRAFT DO NOT TYPICALLY MAKE CENTER FIXES OVER LAND. THE CIRCULATION CENTER HAS BEEN MOVING GENERALLY WESTWARD OR 270 DEGREES AT ABOUT 10 KT...TO THE SOUTH OF A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE. AS THAT RIDGE SLIDES EASTWARD DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES...NOEL SHOULD EVENTUALLY MOVE NORTHWARD OFF OF CUBA AND EVENTUALLY TURN NORTHEASTWARD. THE TIMING OF THE RECURVATURE IS NOT AGREED UPON BY THE VARIOUS MODELS...BUT THE MODEL CONSENSUS DOES NOT BRING NOEL BACK OVER WATER UNTIL TOMORROW MORNING...AND NEITHER WILL THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. THE REMAINDER OF THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS ALONG THE SAME PATH AS THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...BUT IS SLOWER DURING THE FIRST THREE DAYS. THE FORECAST OF AN EXTENDED STAY OVER CUBA REQUIRES A LOWER INTENSITY FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. NOEL MIGHT WEAKEN A LITTLE MORE TODAY AND TONIGHT OVER LAND. ONCE IT EMERGES OVER WATER AGAIN...IT COULD RESTRENGTHEN AS IT APPROACHES THE BAHAMAS...BUT PROBABLY NOT AS MUCH AS IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY SINCE THE CIRCULATION WILL TAKE TIME TO BECOME REESTABLISHED. THE CHANCES OF NOEL BECOMING A HURRICANE APPEAR LESS NOW...AND MOST OF THE OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE DOES NOT FORECAST THIS TO OCCUR. NOTABLE STRENGTHENING COULD OCCUR...HOWEVER...ONCE NOEL BECOMES EXTRATROPICAL IN ABOUT THREE DAYS. THE STRONG GUSTY WINDS CURRENTLY AFFECTING PORTIONS OF FLORIDA ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE NORTH AND ARE NOT DIRECTLY RELATED TO THE CIRCULATION OF NOEL. SEE STATEMENTS FROM NWS LOCAL FORECAST OFFICE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 30/1500Z 21.1N 77.4W 40 KT...INLAND 12HR VT 31/0000Z 21.4N 78.3W 35 KT...INLAND 24HR VT 31/1200Z 22.5N 78.7W 40 KT...NEAR COAST OF CUBA 36HR VT 01/0000Z 24.0N 78.6W 50 KT...OVER WATER 48HR VT 01/1200Z 26.2N 77.4W 50 KT 72HR VT 02/1200Z 32.5N 71.0W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 03/1200Z 39.0N 64.5W 60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 04/1200Z 46.5N 58.5W 60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL $$ FORECASTER KNABB |
