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| #157285 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:55 PM 30.Oct.2007) TCPAT1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM NOEL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 13A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162007 800 PM EDT TUE OCT 30 2007 ...NOEL DUMPING HEAVY RAINS OVER CUBA AND HISPANIOLA... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF SANCTI SPIRITUS...CIEGO DE AVILA...CAMAGUEY...LAS TUNAS...GRANMA... HOLGUIN...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...AND GUANTANAMO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS. INTERESTS IN SOUTHERN FLORIDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF NOEL. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH COULD BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA BY EARLY WEDNESDAY. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 800 PM EDT...0000Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NOEL WAS LOCATED INLAND NEAR LATITUDE 21.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.1 WEST OR ABOUT 25 MILES... 40 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF CAMAGUEY CUBA AND ABOUT 275 MILES...440 KM...SOUTH OF NASSAU IN THE BAHAMAS. NOEL HAS BEEN DRIFTING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 4 MPH...6 KM/HR. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF NOEL IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER CUBA OVERNIGHT...BUT EMERGE OFF THE NORTHERN COAST OF CUBA ON WEDNESDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280 KM...MAINLY TO THE NORTHEAST FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1001 MB...29.56 INCHES. ABOVE NORMAL TIDES ARE LIKELY WITHIN THE WARNING AREAS. NOEL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 10 TO 20 INCHES OVER HISPANIOLA...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM TOTALS OF 30 INCHES. TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES...WITH POSSIBLE MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHEASTERN CUBA AND THE BAHAMAS. THESE RAINS...PARTICULARLY IN HISPANIOLA... ARE EXPECTED TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. REPEATING THE 800 PM EDT POSITION...21.1 N...78.1 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 4 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 1100 PM EDT. $$ FORECASTER PASCH/BLAKE |
