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| #157308 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:34 PM 30.Oct.2007) TCPAT1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM NOEL ADVISORY NUMBER 14 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162007 1100 PM EDT TUE OCT 30 2007 ...NOEL STILL DUMPING HEAVY RAINS OVER CUBA AND HISPANIOLA... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF SANCTI SPIRITUS...CIEGO DE AVILA...CAMAGUEY...LAS TUNAS... GRANMA...HOLGUIN...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...AND GUANTANAMO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS. INTERESTS IN SOUTHERN FLORIDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF NOEL. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 1100 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NOEL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.1 WEST OR VERY NEAR CAMAGUEY CUBA AND ABOUT 255 MILES...405 KM ...SOUTH OF NASSAU. NOEL HAS BEEN MOVING ERRATICALLY OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS BUT IS MOVING GENERALLY TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/HR. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AND NORTH IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...NOEL IS EXPECTED TO EMERGE OFF OF THE NORTH COAST OF CUBA DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED WHEN THE CENTER MOVES OVER WATER. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280 KM FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES. ABOVE NORMAL TIDES ARE LIKELY WITHIN THE WARNING AREAS. NOEL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES OVER HISPANIOLA....WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM STORM TOTALS OF 30 INCHES. TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHEASTERN CUBA AND THE BAHAMAS. THESE RAINS...PARTICULARLY IN HISPANIOLA... ARE EXPECTED TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. REPEATING THE 1100 PM EDT POSITION...21.4 N...78.1 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 200 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500 AM EDT. $$ FORECASTER PASCH/BLAKE |
