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| #157311 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:40 PM 30.Oct.2007) TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM NOEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 14 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162007 1100 PM EDT TUE OCT 30 2007 SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM CUBA AND THE CAMAGUEY RADAR INDICATE THE THE CENTER IS NOT FAR FROM THE CITY OF CAMAGUEY. INFRARED IMAGERY AND LIGHTNING DATA SHOW THAT INTENSE CONVECTION IS OCCURRING NOT FAR EAST AND NORTH OF THE CENTER...BUT SINCE THE SYSTEM HAS REMAINED OVER LAND IT IS NOT LIKELY THAT NOEL HAS STRENGTHENED AND THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS HELD AT 35 KT. CENTER FIXES FROM SATELLITE...RADAR...AND SURFACE SYNOPTIC DATA SUGGEST THAT NOEL HAS BEEN MOVING ERRATICALLY OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS BUT IT APPEARS THAT THE WESTWARD MOTION HAS CEASED. INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 315/4. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE FORECAST TRACK AND THE FORECAST REASONING REMAINS BASICALLY UNCHANGED. A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF NOEL IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE SHIFTING EASTWARD AS A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS STEERING FLOW EVOLUTION SHOULD CAUSE THE TROPICAL CYCLONE TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTH AND THEN TO THE NORTHEAST...WITH INCREASING FORWARD SPEED AS NOEL GETS CAUGHT UP IN THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES. THE VARIOUS TRACK MODELS DIFFER SIGNIFICANTLY ON THE FORWARD SPEED AND THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS RATHER CLOSE TO THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS...CONU. ONCE THE CENTER OF NOEL EMERGES INTO THE ATLANTIC...THERE WILL BE A SHORT WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR THE SYSTEM TO STRENGTHEN. HOWEVER...IN 36-48 HOURS...WESTERLY SHEAR IS DIAGNOSED BY THE SHIPS MODEL TO INCREASE TO AROUND 30 OR 40 KT. THIS SHOULD TERMINATE ANY FURTHER STRENGTHENING OF THE SYSTEM...AT LEAST AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE. IN 3 TO 5 DAYS...THE GLOBAL MODELS TRANSFORM NOEL INTO A VIGOROUS EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE. THIS IS ALSO INDICATED BY THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. THE STRONG GUSTY WINDS CURRENTLY AFFECTING PORTIONS OF FLORIDA ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A STRONG HIGH OVER THE U.S. EAST COAST AND NOEL...BUT ARE NOT DIRECTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE CIRCULATION OF THE TROPICAL STORM. SEE STATEMENTS FROM NWS LOCAL FORECAST OFFICES. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 31/0300Z 21.4N 78.1W 35 KT 12HR VT 31/1200Z 22.1N 78.8W 35 KT...INLAND OVER CUBA 24HR VT 01/0000Z 23.3N 78.8W 40 KT...OVER WATER 36HR VT 01/1200Z 25.1N 78.0W 45 KT 48HR VT 02/0000Z 27.6N 76.5W 45 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL 72HR VT 03/0000Z 34.5N 69.5W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 04/0000Z 42.0N 62.0W 60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 05/0000Z 51.0N 55.0W 60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL $$ FORECASTER PASCH/BLAKE |
