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| #157386 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:08 AM 31.Oct.2007) TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM NOEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 16 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162007 1100 AM EDT WED OCT 31 2007 AIRCRAFT RECONNAISSANCE DATA INDICATE THAT NOEL HAS STRENGTHENED AFTER MOVING OFF THE NORTH COAST OF CUBA. MAXIMUM FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS WERE 53 KT OUTSIDE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION...WHICH HASN'T BEEN SAMPLED YET...AND SFMR DATA HAVE BEEN RUNNING AROUND 45 KT. THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 45 KT. THE CENTER IS DISPLACED ABOUT 30-40 NM FROM THE DEEP CONVECTION...BUT THE ORGANIZATION HAS IMPROVED OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED BEFORE SOUTHWESTERLY WIND SHEAR INCREASES IN ABOUT 36-48 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS SOME WEAKENING DUE TO SHEAR BEFORE THE SYSTEM RESTRENGTHENS AS AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 345/7. THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE TO THE TRACK FORECAST...WHICH CALLS FOR NOEL TO TURN NORTHWARD AND THEN NORTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO. ALTHOUGH THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE CURRENT SURFACE CIRCULATION OF NOEL...THEY ALL TAKE EITHER NOEL OR A NEW EXTRATROPICAL DEVELOPMENT RAPIDLY NORTHEASTWARD. GIVEN THE BETTER ASSOCIATION OF NOEL'S CIRCULATION WITH THE DEEP CONVECTION OBSERVED THIS MORNING...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS CONTINUITY WITH THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND PRESUMES THAT NOEL WILL BE THE PRIMARY CIRCULATION. THE TRACK REPRESENTS A BLEND OF THE HWRF AND GFDL TRACKS FOR NOEL AND THE GFS TRACK FOR THE NEW EXTRATROPICAL LOW. THE STRONG GUSTY WINDS THAT CONTINUE TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF FLORIDA ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A STRONG HIGH OVER THE U.S. EAST COAST AND NOEL...BUT ARE NOT DIRECTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE CIRCULATION OF THE TROPICAL STORM. THIS DISTINCTION MAY BECOME LESS CLEAR AS NOEL APPROACHES...AND IT MAY BE NECESSARY TO TRANSITION TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING. REGARDLESS OF WHAT THE WARNING IS CALLED...WINDS NEAR THE LOW-END TROPICAL STORM/GALE THRESHHOLD WILL CONTINUE TO OCCUR ALONG THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO. PLEASE REFER TO STATEMENTS ISSUED BY LOCAL NWS FORECAST OFFICES. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 31/1500Z 22.7N 78.5W 45 KT 12HR VT 01/0000Z 23.9N 78.6W 55 KT 24HR VT 01/1200Z 25.1N 78.2W 55 KT 36HR VT 02/0000Z 27.0N 76.7W 50 KT 48HR VT 02/1200Z 30.0N 73.9W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 72HR VT 03/1200Z 36.0N 67.0W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 04/1200Z 45.0N 60.0W 60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 05/1200Z 55.0N 51.0W 60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL $$ FORECASTER FRANKLIN |
