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| #157397 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:00 PM 31.Oct.2007) TCPAT1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM NOEL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 16A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162007 200 PM EDT WED OCT 31 2007 ...NOEL MEANDERING NEAR THE NORTH COAST OF CUBA... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF CIEGO DE AVILA...CAMAGUEY...LAS TUNAS... GRANMA...HOLGUIN...AND SANTIAGO DE CUBA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS. INTERESTS IN SOUTHERN FLORIDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF NOEL. AS NOEL`S WIND FIELD APPROACHES SOUTHEAST FLORIDA...THE EXISTING WIND ADVISORY AND GALE WARNING MAY BE REPLACED BY A TROPICAL STORM WARNING. IN EITHER CASE...WINDS NEAR GALE/TROPICAL STORM FORCE ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE ALONG THE COAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 200 PM EDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NOEL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.8 WEST OR ABOUT 190 MILES...305 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF NASSAU. THIS POSITION IS JUST OFF THE NORTH COAST OF CUBA NEAR CAYO SANTA MARIA. NOEL DRIFTED WESTWARD DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...BUT IS CURRENTLY NEARLY STATIONARY. A TURN TO THE NORTH IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE MEASURED BY A RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 996 MB...29.41 INCHES. ABOVE NORMAL TIDES ARE LIKELY WITHIN THE WARNING AREAS. NOEL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES...WITH POSSIBLE MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES OVER THE BAHAMAS AND EASTERN CUBA. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER HISPANIOLA. THESE RAINS...ESPECIALLY IN HISPANIOLA AND CUBA ARE EXPECTED TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. REPEATING THE 200 PM EDT POSITION...22.6 N...78.8 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...STATIONARY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 500 PM EDT. $$ FORECASTER FRANKLIN |
