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| #157437 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:55 PM 31.Oct.2007) TCPAT1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM NOEL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 17A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162007 800 PM EDT WED OCT 31 2007 ...NOEL A LITTLE STRONGER...MOVING AWAY FROM THE NORTH COAST OF CUBA... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF OCEAN REEF TO JUPITER INLET FLORIDA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF SANCTI SPIRITUS...CIEGO DE AVILA...CAMAGUEY...LAS TUNAS... GRANMA...HOLGUIN...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...AND GUANTANAMO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 800 PM EDT...0000Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NOEL WAS LOCATED BY A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT NEAR LATITUDE 22.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.5 WEST OR ABOUT 160 MILES...260 KM... SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF NASSAU AND ABOUT 230 MILES...370 KM... SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF MIAMI FLORIDA. NOEL HAS BEEN DRIFTING NORTHWARD FOR THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS AND A GENERAL SLOW NORTHWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. DATA FROM THE NOAA RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY THE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WAS 996 MB...29.41 INCHES. ABOVE NORMAL TIDES ARE LIKELY WITHIN THE WARNING AREAS. NOEL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES...WITH POSSIBLE MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES...OVER THE BAHAMAS. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER EASTERN CUBA AND HISPANIOLA. RAINS IN HISPANIOLA AND CUBA ARE EXPECTED TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTH FLORIDA. REPEATING THE 800 PM EDT POSITION...22.9 N...78.5 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 2 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 1100 PM EDT. $$ FORECASTER AVILA |
