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| #157458 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:40 PM 31.Oct.2007) TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM NOEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 18 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162007 1100 PM EDT WED OCT 31 2007 SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH NOEL HAS DRAMATICALLY INCREASED DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...BUT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS STILL LOCATED ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THIS LARGE AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS. ALTHOUGH THE CLOUD PATTERN IS A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED THAN EARLIER TODAY...THE DISPLACEMENT OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER FROM THE DEEP CONVECTION SUGGESTS THAT NOEL HAS NOT STRENGTHENED SIGNIFICANTLY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS 50 KT...BASED ON EARLIER RECONNAISSANCE DATA AND THESE WINDS ARE MAINLY OCCURRING TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. THE OUTFLOW IS STILL NOT VERY DISRUPTED BY THE INCOMING SHEAR AND GIVEN THE INCREASE IN CONVECTION...NOEL STILL HAS THE CHANCE TO STRENGTHEN DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. THEREAFTER...THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A STRONG EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE AS IT INTERACTS WITH AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH AND FRONTAL ZONE. AFTER A LONG TIME OVER CUBA OR NEARBY...NOEL HAS BEGUN TO MOVE VERY SLOWLY NORTHWARD AT ABOUT 3 KNOTS AWAY FROM THE ISLAND. NOEL IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWARD FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS BUT THE PREVAILING WEAK STEERING CURRENTS ARE BEGINNING TO CHANGE AND SOON...NOEL WILL LIKELY BE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. THIS PATTERN WILL FORCE NOEL TO TURN MORE TO THE NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. ON THIS TRACK...NOEL WILL BE AFFECTING THE NORTHWESTERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. SINCE NOEL IS ALREADY MOVING NORTHWARD AND IS FORECAST TO TURN NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM FLORIDA...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN OFFSHORE ...THE ISSUANCE OF TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOT REQUIRED TONIGHT. HOWEVER...ANY UNEXPECTED INCREASE IN THE WIND RADII WEST OF THE CYCLONE OR A DEVIATION TO THE LEFT OF THE FORECAST TRACK COULD PROMPT THE ISSUANCE OF A TROPICAL STORM WARNING. BOTH TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECASTS FOLLOW THE GUIDANCE. IN FACT... ALL THE AVAILABLE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE IS CONSISTENT IN STRENGTHENING NOEL A LITTLE...TURNING IT NORTHEASTWARD...AND MAKING IT EXTRATROPICAL IN 2 DAYS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 01/0300Z 23.2N 78.5W 50 KT 12HR VT 01/1200Z 24.3N 78.3W 60 KT 24HR VT 02/0000Z 26.5N 77.0W 60 KT 36HR VT 02/1200Z 29.5N 74.0W 55 KT 48HR VT 03/0000Z 33.5N 70.5W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 72HR VT 04/0000Z 42.0N 63.0W 60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 05/0000Z 50.0N 53.5W 60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 06/0000Z 55.0N 42.5W 60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL $$ FORECASTER AVILA |
