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| #157544 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:49 AM 01.Nov.2007) TCPAT1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM NOEL ADVISORY NUMBER 20 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162007 1100 AM EDT THU NOV 01 2007 ...NOEL TURNS TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST... AT 11 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH NORTH OF DEERFIELD BEACH HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA COAST FROM NORTH OF OCEAN REEF TO DEERFIELD BEACH. THIS WARNING WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED THIS AFTERNOON. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 1100 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NOEL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 77.8 WEST OR ABOUT 45 MILES... 70 KM...SOUTHWEST OF NASSAU AND ABOUT 175 MILES...280 KM... EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MIAMI FLORIDA. NOEL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR...AND AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF NOEL WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS TODAY AND SLOWLY INCREASING ITS DISTANCE FROM THE FLORIDA COAST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE LATER TODAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 995 MB...29.38 INCHES. ABOVE NORMAL TIDES ARE LIKELY WITHIN THE WARNING AREAS. NOEL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES IN THE BAHAMAS...WITH POSSIBLE MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 18 INCHES. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER EASTERN CUBA AND HISPANIOLA...WHERE THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF LESS THAN 1 INCH ARE EXPECTED IN SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA. REPEATING THE 1100 AM EDT POSITION...24.5 N...77.8 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 200 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500 PM EDT. $$ FORECASTER FRANKLIN |
