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| #157549 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:03 AM 01.Nov.2007) TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM NOEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 20 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162007 1100 AM EDT THU NOV 01 2007 DATA PHONED IN FROM THE AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING NOEL INCLUDE PEAK FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS OF 53 KT AND SFMR SURFACE WINDS OF 51 KT. THESE DATA SUPPORT THE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 50 KT. THE CENTER FIXES HAVE BEEN BOUNCING ABOUT IN RESPONSE TO CONVECTIVE BURSTS...BUT OVERALL INDICATE THAT THE TURN TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST HAS BEGUN. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 020/8. THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE TO THE TRACK FORECAST PHILOSOPHY. MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IS ADVANCING TOWARD NOEL FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND THIS FLOW IS EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE NOEL NORTHNORTHEASTWARD. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE HEADING BUT LESS SO ON THE SPEED...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FAVORS A GFS/GFDL/HWRF BLEND. WITH THE RECENT JUMP OF THE CENTER CLOSER TO THE CONVECTION...THERE IS STILL AN OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME STRENGTHENING OVER THE NEXT 12-18 HOURS...BEFORE THE WIND SHEAR BECOMES PROHIBITIVE. HOWEVER... BAROCLINIC ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING AFTER EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IN ABOUT 36 HOURS. AS NOEL IS EXPECTED TO EDGE AWAY FROM SOUTH FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON...IT SHOULD SOON BE POSSIBLE TO LOWER THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 01/1500Z 24.5N 77.8W 50 KT 12HR VT 02/0000Z 25.8N 76.9W 60 KT 24HR VT 02/1200Z 28.4N 74.9W 55 KT 36HR VT 03/0000Z 32.0N 72.0W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 48HR VT 03/1200Z 36.0N 69.0W 65 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 72HR VT 04/1200Z 46.0N 61.0W 70 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 05/1200Z 56.5N 50.0W 65 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 06/1200Z 67.0N 25.0W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL $$ FORECASTER FRANKLIN |
