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| #157596 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:37 PM 01.Nov.2007) TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM NOEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 21 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162007 500 PM EDT THU NOV 01 2007 THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING NOEL REPORTED PEAK FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS AT 850 MB OF 66 KT IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT...AND PEAK SFMR WINDS OF 53 KT. ON THIS BASIS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 55 KT. THE AIRCRAFT ALSO REPORTED THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER WAS BECOMING DISTORTED AND ELONGATED SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND BEGINNING TO INTERACT WITH NOEL...SIGNALING THE START OF EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. WITHIN ANOTHER 12 HOURS OR SO...THE SHEAR BECOMES PROHIBITIVE FOR STRENGTHENING AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE...SO THERE IS ONLY A SHORT WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR NOEL TO BECOME A CANE. HOWEVER...AFTER EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION...GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT NOEL WILL BECOME AN EXTREMELY LARGE AND POWERFUL CYCLONE. NOEL IS ACCELERATING IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH...AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS 030/12. A SECOND MID-LATITUDE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE CYCLONE AND CUT OFF OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES IN 36 HOURS. THIS FORECAST PATTERN RESULTS IN A TRACK FOR NOEL A LITTLE CLOSER TO THE U.S. EAST COAST...AND WITH THE FORECAST EXPANSION OF THE WIND RADII...IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN A SIGNIFICANT EXTRATROPICAL WIND EVENT FROM THE NORTH CAROLINA OUTER BANKS NORTHWARD. PLEASE CONSULT STATEMENTS FROM YOUR NWS LOCAL FORECAST OFFICE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED WESTWARD FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY BUT IS STILL TO THE RIGHT OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS. ADDITIONAL WESTWARD ADJUSTMENTS MAY BE NECESSARY THIS EVENING. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 01/2100Z 25.5N 77.1W 55 KT 12HR VT 02/0600Z 27.6N 75.8W 60 KT 24HR VT 02/1800Z 30.7N 73.8W 60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 36HR VT 03/0600Z 34.5N 71.5W 60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 48HR VT 03/1800Z 39.0N 68.5W 70 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 72HR VT 04/1800Z 50.5N 60.5W 75 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 05/1800Z 60.0N 52.5W 65 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 06/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER FRANKLIN |
