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| #157641 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:43 PM 01.Nov.2007) TCDAT1 HURRICANE NOEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 22 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162007 1100 PM EDT THU NOV 01 2007 SATELLITE IMAGES SHOWED A LARGE AND ROUND VERY STRONG CONVECTIVE MASS WITH UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH NOEL. AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE ENTERED THE CIRCULATION OF NOEL AND MEASURED A MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 981 MB WHICH IS A SIGNIFICANT DROP FROM EARLIER FLIGHTS. WINDS AT FLIGHT-LEVEL HAVE INCREASED TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER AND PEAKED AT 81 KNOTS...AND THE MAXIMUM MEASURED SFMR SURFACE WINDS WERE 69 KNOTS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY WAS ADJUSTED UPWARD TO 70 KNOTS. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ALSO SUPPORT THE INCREASE IN THE WINDS...AND A 0022 UTC SSM/IS PASS DEPICTED AN EYE FEATURE. NOEL COULD BECOME A LITTLE STRONGER DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO BUT THEREAFTER...IT SHOULD GRADUALLY BECOME EXTRATROPICAL AS THE CYCLONE INTERACTS WITH THE MID-LATITUDE CIRCULATION AND A COOLER OCEAN. IT IS EMPHASIZED THAT IT IS VERY DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE THE EXACT TIMING OF THE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. AT THIS TIME...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR THE TRANSITION TO OCCUR IN ABOUT 24 HOURS...BUT IT COULD BE DELAYED SINCE SOME OF THE MODELS SUGGEST THAT THIS PROCESS MAY OCCUR A LITTLE BIT LATER. NEVERTHELESS NOEL IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A LARGE AND POWERFUL EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE. NOEL IS ALREADY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE STRONG AND ACCELERATING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH AND THE CYCLONE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 030 DEGREES AT 17 KNOTS. FROM THIS POINT ON...THE CYCLONE CAN ONLY ACCELERATE AND CONTINUE ON THE SAME GENERAL TRACK. THIS IS THE SOLUTION PROVIDED BY MOST OF THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE. ALL INDICATIONS ARE THAT A POWERFUL EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE WILL MOVE OVER NOVA SCOTIA IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. DETAILS ON THE EFFECTS OF THE EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE CANADIAN MARITIMES PRIMARILY NOVA SCOTIA ARE INCLUDED IN PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA. NOTE: LATEST DATA FROM THE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE SUGGEST THAT THE CIRCULATION AND WINDS ARE EXPANDING OVER THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 02/0300Z 27.3N 76.1W 70 KT 12HR VT 02/1200Z 29.5N 74.7W 75 KT 24HR VT 03/0000Z 33.0N 72.5W 65 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 36HR VT 03/1200Z 37.5N 69.5W 65 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 48HR VT 04/0000Z 42.5N 66.5W 75 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 72HR VT 05/0000Z 53.0N 58.5W 70 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 06/0000Z 62.5N 50.0W 60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 07/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER AVILA |
