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| #157692 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:52 AM 02.Nov.2007) TCDAT1 HURRICANE NOEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 23 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162007 500 AM EDT FRI NOV 02 2007 AT ABOUT 05Z...AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REPORTED SURFACE WINDS OF 70 KT JUST WEST OF THE CENTER BY DROPSONDE AND THE STEPPED FREQUENCY MICROWAVE RADIOMETER. THE AIRCRAFT ALSO REPORTED A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 981 MB...AND 700 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 89 KT WELL TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 70 KT BASED ON THIS DATA. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 030/16. NOEL IS NOW EMBEDDED IN A STRONG SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A DEVELOPING DEEP-LAYER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THE TRACK GUIDANCE FORECASTS THIS PATTERN TO CAUSE THE CURRENT MOTION TO CONTINUE WITH SOME ACCELERATION...BRINGING NOEL NEAR OR OVER NOVA SCOTIA IN ABOUT 48 HR. A NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE THEREAFTER UNTIL THE CYCLONE DISSIPATES AT VERY HIGH LATITUDES. NOEL IS NOW MOVING OVER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES COLDER THAN 26C...AND THE CONVECTIVE TOPS ARE BEGINNING TO WARM. THIS SUGGESTS THAT THE SYSTEM WILL NOT STRENGTHEN ANY MORE AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE. NOEL SHOULD BEGIN LOSING TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS LATER TODAY AND COMPLETE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION BY 24 HR. IT IS FORECAST TO MAINTAIN HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS DURING THE TRANSITION...AND THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR SOME STRENGTHENING BETWEEN 24-48 HR IN AGREEMENT WITH THE GFDL AND HWRF MODELS. THE GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST NOEL TO WEAKEN AFTER 48 HR AND DISSIPATE BY 120 HR...AND THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM NOAA BUOY 41047...QUIKSCAT DATA...AND AIRCRAFT REPORTS INDICATE THAT NOEL HAS BECOME SIGNIFICANTLY LARGER IN SIZE DURING THE NIGHT. THIS HAS CAUSED SIGNIFICANT REVISION TO BOTH THE INITIAL AND FORECAST WIND RADII. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 02/0900Z 28.4N 75.2W 70 KT 12HR VT 02/1800Z 31.2N 73.6W 70 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL 24HR VT 03/0600Z 35.4N 71.2W 70 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 36HR VT 03/1800Z 40.0N 68.7W 75 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 48HR VT 04/0600Z 44.9N 65.0W 75 KT...EXTRATROPICAL INLAND 72HR VT 05/0600Z 56.0N 56.5W 65 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 06/0600Z 64.5N 50.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL INLAND 120HR VT 07/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BEVEN |
