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| #163511 (Received by flhurricane at: 9:36 AM 12.Dec.2007) TCDAT2 TROPICAL STORM OLGA DISCUSSION NUMBER 7 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172007 1000 AM EST WED DEC 12 2007 OLGA LACKS THE CONVECTION REQUIRED OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE...AND BASED ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY PROBABLY ALSO LACKS A CLOSED SURFACE CIRCULATION. HOWEVER...WE WILL HANG ON TO OLGA FOR A FEW MORE HOURS JUST IN CASE DEEP CONVECTION RETURNS OR WEST WINDS BECOME EVIDENT. A QUIKSCAT PASS AT 10Z...AS WELL AS SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THAT THERE REMAINS A BAND OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS JUST EAST OF THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 35 KT BASED ON THESE DATA. THE VORTICITY CENTER HAS ACCELERATED...AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 270/20. OLGA REMAINS TO THE SOUTH OF A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED JUST EAST OF FLORIDA...AND THIS RIDGE SHOULD CONTINUE TO STEER OLGA...OR ITS REMNANTS...WESTWARD FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. WITH DRY AIR AND STRONG SHEAR FORECAST OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN...SIGNIFICANT REGENERATION THERE IS NOT EXPECTED. THE PRIMARY THREAT FROM OLGA CONTINUES TO BE HEAVY RAINFALL AND LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES IN HISPANIOLA. SOME OF THESE RAINS SHOULD SPREAD OVER EASTERN CUBA TODAY. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 12/1500Z 19.1N 75.2W 35 KT 12HR VT 13/0000Z 19.2N 77.6W 30 KT...REMNANT LOW 24HR VT 13/1200Z 19.5N 80.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 36HR VT 14/0000Z 20.0N 82.7W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 48HR VT 14/1200Z 20.5N 84.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 72HR VT 15/1200Z 21.5N 86.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 16/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER FRANKLIN/MAINELLI |
