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| #16580 (Received by flhurricane at: 9:26 AM 01.Dec.2004) TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM OTTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162004 1500Z WED DEC 01 2004 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.4N 50.2W AT 01/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST OR 135 DEGREES AT 3 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT.......150NE 60SE 60SW 150NW. 12 FT SEAS..500NE 150SE 150SW 300NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.4N 50.2W AT 01/1500Z AT 01/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.6N 50.4W FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 30.8N 49.7W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...150NE 60SE 60SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 30.0N 49.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 29.2N 48.3W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 28.5N 47.5W...DISSIPATING MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 27.0N 46.0W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 05/1200Z 25.5N 45.0W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 06/1200Z 24.0N 45.0W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.4N 50.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/2100Z FORECASTER PASCH |
