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| #16591 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:04 AM 01.Dec.2004) TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM OTTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 4 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 10 AM EST WED DEC 01 2004 THE SYSTEM IS RATHER UNIMPRESSIVE-LOOKING THIS MORNING...WITH ONLY A SMALL PATCH OF DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF THE CIRCULATION. EVEN THOUGH THE CYCLONE IS MOVING TOWARD SLIGHTLY WARMER WATERS...WESTERLY SHEAR....ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE AREA...IS LIKELY TO INCREASE AND CAUSE WEAKENING. OTTO IS EXPECTED TO DEGENERATE TO REMNANT LOW STATUS...AND IT MAY DO SO SOONER THAN INDICATED BY THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. THE MOTION IS SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD...135/3. GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT OTTO SHOULD REMAIN IN A GENERAL NORTHWESTWARD STEERING FLOW ON THE EAST SIDE OF A BROAD MID-LEVEL RIDGE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK FOLLOWS THIS REASONING...AND IS ABOUT IN THE MIDDLE OF THE OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE SUITE. THIS IS A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS NHC TRACK. FORECASTER PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 01/1500Z 31.4N 50.2W 40 KT 12HR VT 02/0000Z 30.8N 49.7W 35 KT 24HR VT 02/1200Z 30.0N 49.0W 30 KT 36HR VT 03/0000Z 29.2N 48.3W 30 KT 48HR VT 03/1200Z 28.5N 47.5W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 72HR VT 04/1200Z 27.0N 46.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 05/1200Z 25.5N 45.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 120HR VT 06/1200Z 24.0N 45.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW |
