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| #16644 (Received by flhurricane at: 3:20 AM 02.Dec.2004) TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM OTTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 7 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 4 AM EST THU DEC 02 2004 DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS...CONVECTION HAS DECREASED IN AREAL COVERAGE AND VERTICAL DEPTH NEAR THE CENTER AND IS NOW CONFINED TO THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT. HOWEVER...DRIFTING BUOY 44623 NEAR THE CENTER OF OTTO INDICATES THE PRESSURE HAS CONTINUED TO DECREASE AND WAS 995.7 MB AT 05Z. BASED ON THE LOWER CENTRAL PRESSURE AND A DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T2.5 FROM TAFB...THE INTENSITY IS BEING MAINTAINED AT 35 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 180/05. THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE IS LESS DIVERGENT THAN IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY PACKAGE AND IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON A SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHERLY MOTION THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE UKMET MODEL REMAINS THE LEFTMOST MODEL AND TAKES OTTO EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD WHILE THE GFDL MODEL IS NOW THE RIGHTMOST MODEL AND MOVES OTTO SOUTHWARD. HOWEVER...ALL THE MODELS AGREE ON WEAK RIDGING CONTINUING TO DEVELOP TO THE NORTH OF OTTO... WHICH SHOULD CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO CONTINUE LOSING LATITUDE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND IS CLOSE TO THE CONU AND GUNS CONSENSUS MODELS. MID-LEVEL DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT COUPLED WITH MODERATE NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS TAKING ITS TOLL ON OTTO...EVEN THOUGH CIRRUS OUTFLOW HAS ACTUALLY EXPANDED TO THE NORTHWEST OVER THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER. HOWEVER...THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INCREASE OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS WHILE THE MID-LEVELS ARE FORECAST TO DRY OUT EVEN MORE. AS SUCH...OTTO IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY WEAKEN AND BECOME A NON-CONVECTIVE REMNANT LOW BY 72 HOURS...EVEN THOUGH THE CYCLONE WILL BE MOVING OVER WARMER 25-26C SST WATERS. FORECASTER STEWART FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 02/0900Z 29.8N 49.9W 35 KT 12HR VT 02/1800Z 29.0N 49.7W 30 KT 24HR VT 03/0600Z 27.9N 49.1W 30 KT 36HR VT 03/1800Z 26.8N 48.5W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 48HR VT 04/0600Z 25.9N 48.1W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 72HR VT 05/0600Z 24.7N 48.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 06/0600Z 23.5N 48.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 120HR VT 07/0600Z...DISSIPATED |
