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| #191495 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:08 PM 31.May.2008) TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012008 1100 PM EDT SAT MAY 31 2008 THE CENTER OF ARTHUR REMAINS INLAND OVER THE SOUTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO...BUT MOST OF THE ASSOCIATED HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS WELL REMOVED FROM THAT LOCATION. THE BAND OF CONVECTION JUST OFFSHORE TO THE EAST OF BELIZE WENT THROUGH A BRIEF LULL AROUND 22Z BUT HAS SINCE PERKED UP AGAIN...WITH RATHER COLD INFRARED CLOUD TOPS COLLOCATED WITH NUMEROUS LONG-RANGE LIGHTNING RETURNS. OTHER LARGE CLUSTERS OF DEEP CONVECTION HAVE PERSISTED INLAND TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER...HIGHLIGHTING THE CONTINUED POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINS AND INLAND FLOODING. ESSENTIALLY NO DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN OCCURRING RECENTLY IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ALMOST CERTAINLY OCCURRING IN THE BAND EAST OF BELIZE. DATA FROM THE 2330Z QUIKSCAT PASS OVER THAT AREA JUST ARRIVED AND SUGGEST THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE STILL ABOUT 35 KT. LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGING TO THE NORTH OF ARTHUR SHOULD STEER THE CYCLONE GENERALLY WESTWARD AT ABOUT 5 OR 6 KT FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...BUT IT IS QUITE UNCERTAIN HOW STRONG ARTHUR WILL BE OR HOW LONG IT WILL LAST. THE OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE IS MUDDY AT BEST...BUT MOST OF THE MODELS FORECAST ARTHUR OR ITS REMNANTS TO SPEND MOST OF THE NEXT THREE DAYS OR SO OVER LAND..JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. ONLY THE GFDL SHOWS THE CENTER EMERGING BACK OVER WATER. THE NEW OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS ADJUSTED SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND STAYS JUST INLAND FROM THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. AS A RESULT...THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY DOWNWARD AND CALLS FOR ARTHUR TO SOON BE A DEPRESSION AND REMAIN THAT WAY FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS UNTIL DEGENERATING TO A REMNANT LOW OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL MEXICO. IF...HOWEVER...THE ACTUAL TRACK ENDS UP JUST A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH...AND THE CENTER OF ARTHUR EMERGES OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...IT IS POSSIBLE THE SYSTEM COULD BE AT TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH IN A DAY OR TWO. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 01/0300Z 18.4N 89.5W 35 KT...INLAND 12HR VT 01/1200Z 18.4N 90.5W 30 KT...INLAND 24HR VT 02/0000Z 18.4N 91.5W 30 KT...INLAND 36HR VT 02/1200Z 18.3N 92.5W 30 KT...INLAND 48HR VT 03/0000Z 18.3N 93.6W 30 KT...NEAR COAST 72HR VT 04/0000Z 18.2N 95.0W 25 KT...INLAND REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 05/0000Z 18.0N 96.0W 20 KT...INLAND REMNANT LOW 120HR VT 06/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER KNABB |
