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| #198780 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:43 AM 03.Jul.2008) TCDAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022008 500 AM EDT THU JUL 03 2008 THE STRONG TROPICAL WAVE AND SURFACE LOW OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN HAS ACQUIRED ENOUGH ORGANIZED CONVECTION TO NOW BE CONSIDERED A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT A STRONG BURST OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED FOR OVER 12 HOURS NEAR OR JUST WEST OF THE APPARENT CENTER OF THE SYSTEM. BANDING FEATURES ARE ALSO BECOMING MORE PRONOUNCED IN THE NORTHWESTERN PART OF THE CIRCULATION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30 KT IS BASED ON A QUIKSCAT PASS FROM LATE YESTERDAY THAT SHOWED SOME RELIABLE 25-30 KT WINDS. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT MOST GLOBAL MODELS...ESPECIALLY THE GFS...SUGGESTED THE POSSIBILITY OF GENESIS IN THIS AREA OVER A WEEK AGO...A REMARKABLE ACHIEVEMENT. MIDDLE-LEVEL RIDGING IS STEERING THE STORM TOWARD THE WEST- NORTHWEST...ABOUT 285/8. THIS RIDGING GETS STRONGER DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WHICH SHOULD CAUSE A FASTER FORWARD MOTION BY LATE TOMORROW. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK UNTIL THE SYSTEM POTENTIALLY REACHES A BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ALONG ABOUT 50W-55W AT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE MODELS THAT SHOW THE STRONGEST REFLECTION OF THE CYCLONE...SUCH AS THE GFS/HWRF/GFDL...TURN THE DEPRESSION MORE TOWARD THE NORTHWEST... WHILE THE UKMET/ECMWF MODELS KEEP A WEAKER TROPICAL CYCLONE ON A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE FIVE MODELS ABOVE BUT JUST A SHADE TO THE LEFT OF THAT CONSENSUS. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS FORECAST TO REMAIN LIGHT FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS NEAR THIS SYSTEM...SO THE BIGGEST LIMITING FACTOR ON THE FUTURE STRENGTH OF THE DEPRESSION IS THE COOLER WATERS AND MORE STABLE AIR IN ITS PATH. AFTER ABOUT 24 HR ON THE NHC TRACK...SSTS DROP BELOW 26C AND STAY BELOW THAT THRESHOLD FOR A COUPLE DAYS. THEREAFTER SSTS WARM SLIGHTLY AND MOST GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST AN ENVIRONMENT THAT WOULD FAVOR SOME INTENSIFICATION. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST REFLECTS THIS SCENARIO...SHOWING STRENGTHENING AT THE START AND END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AND NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN BETWEEN WHILE THE SYSTEM IS OVER THE COOLEST SSTS. THE SHIPS/GFDL MODELS ARE A LITTLE MORE BULLISH WITH THIS SYSTEM...MAKING IT A HURRICANE WITHIN 5 DAYS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 03/0900Z 12.6N 22.7W 30 KT 12HR VT 03/1800Z 13.0N 24.5W 35 KT 24HR VT 04/0600Z 13.8N 27.2W 45 KT 36HR VT 04/1800Z 14.7N 30.0W 45 KT 48HR VT 05/0600Z 15.8N 33.3W 45 KT 72HR VT 06/0600Z 17.5N 40.0W 45 KT 96HR VT 07/0600Z 20.0N 46.5W 50 KT 120HR VT 08/0600Z 23.0N 51.0W 55 KT $$ FORECASTER BLAKE |
