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| #200606 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:40 AM 12.Jul.2008) TCDAT2 HURRICANE BERTHA DISCUSSION NUMBER 38 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022008 1100 AM EDT SAT JUL 12 2008 AFTER A WEEK OR SO...I AM RUNNING OUT OF THINGS TO SAY ABOUT BERTHA. THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH SINCE YESTERDAY AND CONSISTS OF A LARGE DIFFUSE EYE SURROUNDED BY MODERATE CONVECTION. DVORAK T-NUMBERS HAVE BEEN DECREASING AND GIVEN THE CURRENT SATELLITE STRUCTURE THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 75 KNOTS. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER WILL CHECK BERTHA LATER TODAY. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. DUE TO ITS SLOW MOTION...BERTHA IS PROBABLY CAUSING UPWELLING AND THIS COULD RESULT IN A FASTER WEAKENING TREND. BERTHA HAS BARELY MOVED DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...PERHAPS TO THE NORTH ABOUT 2 KNOTS. THE CURRENT PATTERN OF WEAK STEERING CURRENTS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...BUT STILL FAVORS A GENERAL SLOW NORTHERLY TRACK DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THEREAFTER...AS BERTHA GETS CLOSER TO THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES...THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO MOVE SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST BUT MAINTAINING ITS SLOW PACE. DYNAMICAL TRACK GUIDANCE SHOWS THIS SCENARIO AND HAS NOW BEGUN TO TURN BERTHA TOWARD THE EAST BEYOND DAY FOUR. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 12/1500Z 29.9N 62.6W 75 KT 12HR VT 13/0000Z 30.2N 62.7W 75 KT 24HR VT 13/1200Z 30.7N 62.7W 75 KT 36HR VT 14/0000Z 31.3N 62.7W 70 KT 48HR VT 14/1200Z 32.0N 62.7W 65 KT 72HR VT 15/1200Z 34.0N 62.0W 60 KT 96HR VT 16/1200Z 35.5N 60.5W 50 KT 120HR VT 17/1200Z 36.0N 58.0W 50 KT $$ FORECASTER AVILA |
