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| #200707 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:49 PM 12.Jul.2008) TCPAT2 BULLETIN HURRICANE BERTHA ADVISORY NUMBER 40 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022008 1100 PM AST SAT JUL 12 2008 ...STATIONARY BERTHA EXPECTED TO RESUME SLOW NORTHWARD MOTION TOMORROW... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR BERMUDA. AT 1100 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BERTHA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 62.4 WEST OR ABOUT 220 MILES... 350 KM...SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA. BERTHA HAS BEEN STATIONARY FOR THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. A VERY SLOW MOTION GENERALLY TOWARD THE NORTH IS FORECAST TO RESUME ON SUNDAY AND CONTINUE ON MONDAY. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF BERTHA IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY PASS NOT FAR TO THE SOUTHEAST AND EAST OF BERMUDA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...ALTHOUGH THE MOTION COULD BE ERRATIC AT TIMES AND COULD BRING THE CENTER OF BERTHA CLOSER TO BERMUDA THAN THE FORECAST TRACK INDICATES. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. BERTHA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY...AND BERTHA IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR THE THRESHOLD BETWEEN HURRICANE AND TROPICAL STORM INTENSITY DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 984 MB...29.06 INCHES. LARGE SWELLS AND HIGH SURF ARE AFFECTING BERMUDA...AND THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE OUTER BANDS OF BERTHA COULD PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN BERMUDA OF 2 TO 4 INCHES DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. REPEATING THE 1100 PM AST POSITION...29.9 N...62.4 W. MOVEMENT... STATIONARY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...984 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 200 AM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500 AM AST. $$ FORECASTER KNABB |
