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| #201575 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:40 AM 18.Jul.2008) TCDAT2 TROPICAL STORM BERTHA DISCUSSION NUMBER 61 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022008 500 AM EDT FRI JUL 18 2008 TENACIOUS BERTHA CONTINUES TO HAVE A REMARKABLE WELL-DEFINED CLOUD PATTERN WITH A CURVED CONVECTIVE BAND TO THE NORTH...AN EYE-LIKE FEATURE AND LIMITED OUTFLOW. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 50 KNOTS...BUT IT COULD BE A LITTLE BIT STRONGER. AS BERTHA MOVES OVER COOLER WATERS IT SHOULD WEAKEN AND BECOME EXTRATROPICAL IN ABOUT 48 HOURS. THEREAFTER...BERTHA SHOULD BE FULLY EMBEDDED IN THE HIGH LATITUDE WESTERLIES AND BECOME ABSORBED BY A LARGER EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE. BERTHA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 045 DEGREES AT 15 KNOTS. IT APPEARS THAT FINALLY BERTHA WILL ACCELERATE TO THE NORTHEAST AHEAD OF A SHARP MID-LATITUDE TROUGH AS INDICATED BY GUIDANCE. SOME MODELS MAKE BERTHA EXTRATROPICAL SOONER THAN OTHERS BUT THEY ALL LEAD TO THE SAME ENDING. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 18/0900Z 34.8N 53.7W 50 KT 12HR VT 18/1800Z 36.6N 51.6W 50 KT 24HR VT 19/0600Z 39.0N 48.8W 45 KT 36HR VT 19/1800Z 42.5N 45.0W 45 KT 48HR VT 20/0600Z 46.0N 41.0W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 72HR VT 21/0600Z 54.0N 31.0W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 22/0600Z...ABSORBED BY LARGE EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE $$ |
