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| #201752 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:37 AM 19.Jul.2008) TCDAT2 HURRICANE BERTHA DISCUSSION NUMBER 65 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022008 500 AM EDT SAT JUL 19 2008 BERTHA HAS REMARKABLY MAINTAINED ITS TROPICAL STRUCTURE WITH AN EYE SURROUNDED BY MODERATE CONVECTION. INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 65 KNOTS BUT COULD BE A LITTLE BIT HIGHER...AS SUGGESTED BY DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM TAFB. I AM NOT GOING TO SPECULATE HOW MUCH LONGER BERTHA WILL KEEP ITS STRUCTURE BUT THE CYCLONE IS MOVING OVER COOL WATERS AND WITHIN THE MID-LATITUDE FLOW. CONSQUENTLY...BERTHA HAS TO WEAKEN AND BEGIN TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL...FAMOUS LAST WORDS. BERTHA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 030 DEGREES AT 22 KNOTS. THE HURRICANE SHOULD CONTINUE ON THIS GENERAL TRACK WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED UNTIL BECOME ABSORBED IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. TRACK GUIDANCE UNANIMOUSLY SHOWS THE HURRICANE ACCELERATING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 19/0900Z 41.2N 47.4W 65 KT 12HR VT 19/1800Z 43.8N 44.8W 60 KT 24HR VT 20/0600Z 48.0N 40.5W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 36HR VT 20/1800Z 53.0N 35.0W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 48HR VT 21/0600Z 58.0N 28.0W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 72HR VT 22/0600Z...EXTRATROPICAL $$ FORECASTER AVILA |
