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| #201806 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:52 AM 19.Jul.2008) TCDAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032008 1100 AM EDT SAT JUL 19 2008 THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS CONTINUING TO ORGANIZE AND IS NEARING TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH. RADAR VELOCITY DATA FROM CHARLESTON AND WILMINGTON SHOW THAT THE WIND FIELDS ALOFT ARE BECOMING BETTER- DEFINED AND INCREASING. IN ADDITION...SHIP PDNN REPORTED 30 KT TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER AT 1200 UTC. THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE KEPT AT 30 KT IN THIS ADVISORY AND AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WILL BE IN THE AREA AROUND 1700 UTC TO DETERMINE IF THE SYSTEM HAS BECOME A TROPICAL STORM. ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME DRY AIR TO THE NORTH...VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE LOW FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR THE WARM GULF STREAM WATERS. SURPRISINGLY... NEITHER THE GFDL NOR THE HWRF SHOW MUCH STRENGTHENING WITH THE DEPRESSION. WE'RE INCLINED TO THINK THAT SLOW INTENSIFICATION IS LIKELY GIVEN THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS...SO A SLOW INCREASE IN WINDS IS INDICATED...CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE SHIPS/SHIFOR GUIDANCE. DATA FROM BUOY 41004 HAS BEEN HELPFUL IN TRACKING THE DEPRESSION... WHICH APPEARS TO HAVE REFORMED A LITTLE TO THE EAST. BEST ESTIMATE OF INITIAL MOTION IS 050/6. A WEAK MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE STORM SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE THE SYSTEM IN THIS GENERAL DIRECTION AND AT A SIMILAR SPEED FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THEREAFTER... THE DEPRESSION WILL BE CAUGHT UP IN A STRONGER STEERING CURRENT BETWEEN A BUILDING RIDGE TO THE EAST AND A DEEPENING MIDDLE-LATITUDE TROUGH. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON TAKING THE SYSTEM NEAR THE SOUTH AND NORTH CAROLINA COASTS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE EAST OF THE PREVIOUS ONE...MOSTLY DUE TO THE CENTER REFORMATION...AND LIES ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 19/1500Z 32.6N 78.5W 30 KT 12HR VT 20/0000Z 33.3N 77.6W 35 KT 24HR VT 20/1200Z 34.2N 76.3W 40 KT 36HR VT 21/0000Z 35.1N 75.0W 45 KT 48HR VT 21/1200Z 36.5N 73.0W 45 KT 72HR VT 22/1200Z 40.5N 68.0W 45 KT 96HR VT 23/1200Z...ABSORBED $$ FORECASTER BLAKE/KNABB |
