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| #201812 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:08 AM 19.Jul.2008) TCDAT2 HURRICANE BERTHA DISCUSSION NUMBER 66 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022008 1100 AM EDT SAT JUL 19 2008 BERTHA IS STILL A HURRICANE...EVEN THOUGH IT IS NOW WELL PAST 40 DEGREES NORTH LATITUDE AND OVER RATHER CHILLY SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURES. A QUIKSCAT PASS AT AROUND 0820Z PRODUCED 25-KM-RESOLUTION RETRIEVED WIND SPEEDS AS STRONG AS ABOUT 60 KT IN DEEP CONVECTION...AND THESE COULD CERTAINLY BE UNDERESTIMATES. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES AT 12Z REMAINED 65 KT...AND THAT IS THE ADVISORY INTENSITY. BERTHA'S LONG LIFE AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE IS PROBABLY NEARING ITS END...HOWEVER...SINCE IT IS SO QUICKLY GAINING LATITUDE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR BERTHA TO BE AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN ABOUT 24 HOURS AND THEN BE ABSORBED BY A LARGER SYSTEM IN LESS THAN THREE DAYS. THE HURRICANE IS RACING ALONG AT 035/22...AND THE FORWARD SPEED WILL PROBABLY INCREASE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE CYCLONE ENTERS THE FULL-BLOWN MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT...WHICH IS NOT SURPRISING WHEN STEERING CURRENTS ARE THIS WELL-DEFINED. THE NEW OFFICIAL TRACK IS RIGHT ON THE PREVIOUS ONE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 19/1500Z 43.1N 45.4W 65 KT 12HR VT 20/0000Z 45.9N 42.6W 60 KT 24HR VT 20/1200Z 50.5N 37.7W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 36HR VT 21/0000Z 55.7N 31.2W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 48HR VT 21/1200Z 60.8N 24.0W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 72HR VT 22/1200Z...ABSORBED $$ FORECASTER KNABB |
