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| #201874 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:52 PM 19.Jul.2008) TCDAT3 TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 4 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032008 500 PM EDT SAT JUL 19 2008 THE AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER HAS FOUND MAXIMUM FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS OF 58 KT AT 2500 FT...CORRESPONDING TO ABOUT 45 KT AT THE SURFACE. HOWEVER...SFMR DATA AT THAT SAME LOCATION SHOWED ONLY 35 KT AND CONVECTION HAS BEEN WEAKENING NEAR THE CENTER. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THESE VALUES AND IS SET TO 40 KT. FURTHER INTENSIFICATION IS POSSIBLE AS THE SYSTEM MOVES OVER WARM GULF STREAM WATERS AND EXPERIENCES LIGHT SHEAR. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS INCREASED FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS CLOSE TO A SHIFOR/SHIPS CONSENSUS. STRANGELY...THE GFDL/HWRF STILL REFUSE TO INTENSIFY THIS SYSTEM. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 050/6. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS SYNOPTIC REASONING. A WEAK MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE STORM SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE THE SYSTEM AT ABOUT THE SAME HEADING AND SPEED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON TAKING THE SYSTEM NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THEREAFTER...THE DEPRESSION WILL MOVE FASTER TO THE NORTHEAST BETWEEN A BUILDING RIDGE TO THE EAST AND A DEEPENING MIDDLE- LATITUDE TROUGH OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA. THE MODELS DO DIVERGE A LITTLE ON WHETHER THE STORM WILL BE TURN A LITTLE MORE TO THE LEFT IN RESPONSE TO THE TROUGH OR STAY MORE SEPARATE FROM THAT FEATURE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A TAD FASTER AND A LITTLE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AFTER 36 HR...NEAR THE CENTER OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 19/2100Z 33.0N 77.9W 40 KT 12HR VT 20/0600Z 33.7N 77.0W 45 KT 24HR VT 20/1800Z 34.7N 75.6W 50 KT 36HR VT 21/0600Z 35.9N 73.9W 55 KT 48HR VT 21/1800Z 38.0N 71.3W 55 KT 72HR VT 22/1800Z 43.5N 64.0W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 23/1800Z...ABSORBED $$ FORECASTER BLAKE/KNABB |
