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| #202089 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:52 PM 20.Jul.2008) TCMAT4 TROPICAL STORM DOLLY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042008 2100 UTC SUN JUL 20 2008 A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO FROM THE BORDER WITH BELIZE TO CAMPECHE MEXICO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF BELIZE FROM BELIZE CITY NORTHWARD TO THE BORDER WITH MEXICO. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.9N 85.0W AT 20/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT.......150NE 150SE 0SW 150NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 175SE 100SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.9N 85.0W AT 20/2100Z AT 20/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.6N 84.5W FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 20.1N 86.9W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...150NE 150SE 0SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 21.6N 89.8W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...150NE 100SE 0SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 22.9N 92.4W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...150NE 150SE 60SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 23.8N 94.1W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...150NE 150SE 60SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 25.0N 96.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 75NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...150NE 150SE 75SW 150NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 24/1800Z 26.0N 99.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 25/1800Z 27.0N 101.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.9N 85.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/0300Z $$ FORECASTER KNABB |
