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| #202164 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:08 PM 20.Jul.2008) TCDAT4 TROPICAL STORM DOLLY DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042008 1100 PM EDT SUN JUL 20 2008 DATA FROM A NOAA P3 AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT DOLLY HAS NOT BECOME ANY BETTER ORGANIZED THIS EVENING. INDEED...THE SYSTEM PROBABLY DOESN'T HAVE A CLOSED SURFACE CENTER RIGHT NOW. HOWEVER...DOLLY IS MAINTAINING VIGOROUS CONVECTION AND THE STRONGEST WINDS...AS ESTIMATED BY THE SFMR...HAVE INCREASED TO 45 KT. SINCE DOLLY COULD REGENERATE A CENTER AT ANY TIME...NO GOOD WOULD BE SERVED BY HANGING ON A TECHNICALITY. THE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS 305/12. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A TEMPORARY INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED...PERHAPS DUE TO THE UPPER LOW TO THE WEST OF DOLLY MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD...ENHANCING THE DEEP LAYER EASTERLIES. DOLLY SHOULD CONTINUE TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST SOUTH OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER TEXAS. BY 72 HOURS...THIS RIDGE WEAKENS...AND SOME OF THE GUIDANCE SHOWS A SLIGHT NORTHWARD TURN IN THE WESTERN GULF. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS MORE OF A STRAIGHT LINE TRACK BUT IS STILL VERY CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS OF A VERY TIGHTLY PACKED GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW MAY BE KEEPING DOLLY FROM ORGANIZING FOR NOW...BUT THIS SHOULD RAPIDLY BECOME A NON-FACTOR. ONCE THE SYSTEM ENTERS THE GULF OF MEXICO...ALL GLOBAL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A VERY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR STRENGTHENING...WITH A LARGE ANTICYCLONE ALOFT...NO SHEAR...AND WARM GULF WATERS. THE QUANTITATIVE GUIDANCE IS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST BLENDS THE LGEM...SHIPS...AND GFDL. THE INTENSITY FORECAST ASSUMES THAT THERE WILL BE SOME DISRUPTION OF THE SYSTEM OVER THE YUCATAN...WHICH COULD BE AVOIDED IF A CENTER REFORMS TO THE NORTH WITHIN THE DEEP CONVECTION. INTERESTS IN THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DOLLY. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 21/0300Z 19.6N 85.8W 45 KT 12HR VT 21/1200Z 20.9N 88.1W 45 KT...INLAND 24HR VT 22/0000Z 22.3N 90.8W 50 KT 36HR VT 22/1200Z 23.4N 92.9W 55 KT 48HR VT 23/0000Z 24.3N 94.5W 65 KT 72HR VT 24/0000Z 25.5N 97.0W 75 KT 96HR VT 25/0000Z 27.0N 100.0W 30 KT...INLAND 120HR VT 26/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER FRANKLIN |
