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| #202178 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:55 AM 21.Jul.2008) TCPAT4 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM DOLLY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 3A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042008 200 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2008 ...DOLLY MOVING OVER THE NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO FROM THE BORDER WITH BELIZE TO CAMPECHE MEXICO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF BELIZE FROM BELIZE CITY NORTHWARD TO THE BORDER WITH MEXICO. THIS TROPICAL STORM WATCH WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED LATER THIS MORNING. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. SATELLITE IMAGES...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR DATA FROM CANCUN MEXICO INDICATE THAT DOLLY LACKS A WELL-DEFINED CENTER OF CIRCULATION AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT THE CENTER IS REFORMING A LITTLE TO THE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK. AT 200 AM EDT...0600Z...THE POORLY-DEFINED CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DOLLY WAS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR LATITUDE 21.1 NORTH... LONGITUDE 86.8 WEST OR VERY NEAR CANCUN MEXICO. DOLLY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR. THIS GENERAL HEADING WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THE CENTER OF DOLLY IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA THIS MORNING AND MOVE INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO LATER TODAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS LIKELY TO BEGIN AFTER DOLLY MOVES AWAY FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA LATER TODAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280 KM FROM THE CENTER. DOLLY COULD PRODUCE WINDS NEAR TROPICAL STORM FORCE...ESPECIALLY IN GUSTS...OVER THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA THIS MORNING. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES. DOLLY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL OF 4 TO 6 INCHES ACROSS THE NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO AND IN WESTERN CUBA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS UP TO 10 INCHES. REPEATING THE 200 AM EDT POSITION...21.1 N...86.8 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 500 AM EDT. $$ FORECASTER PASCH |
