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| #202199 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:55 AM 21.Jul.2008) TCPAT4 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM DOLLY ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042008 500 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2008 ...DOLLY OVER NORTHERN YUCATAN...ABOUT TO MOVE INTO THE GULF... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO FROM THE BORDER WITH BELIZE TO CAMPECHE MEXICO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF BELIZE FROM BELIZE CITY NORTHWARD TO THE BORDER WITH MEXICO. THIS TROPICAL STORM WATCH WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED LATER THIS MORNING. INTERESTS IN THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DOLLY. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 500 AM EDT...0900Z...THE POORLY-DEFINED CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DOLLY WAS ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 87.4 WEST OR ABOUT 150 MILES...240 KM...EAST OF PROGRESO MEXICO. DOLLY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR...AND A TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ON TUESDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN WHEN THE CENTER OF THE STORM MOVES INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND DOLLY COULD BECOME A HURRICANE BY TUESDAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280 KM FROM THE CENTER. DOLLY COULD PRODUCE WINDS NEAR TROPICAL STORM FORCE...ESPECIALLY IN GUSTS...OVER THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA THIS MORNING. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES. DOLLY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL OF 4 TO 6 INCHES ACROSS THE NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO AND IN WESTERN CUBA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS UP TO 10 INCHES. REPEATING THE 500 AM EDT POSITION...21.3 N...87.4 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 800 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100 AM EDT. $$ FORECASTER PASCH |
