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| #202236 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:55 AM 21.Jul.2008) TCMAT4 TROPICAL STORM DOLLY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042008 1500 UTC MON JUL 21 2008 AT 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...A HURRICANE WATCH IS ISSUED FOR THE TEXAS COAST FROM BROWNSVILLE NORTHWARD TO PORT O`CONNOR. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. AT 1100 AM EDT...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS ISSUED FOR THE TEXAS COAST FROM NORTH OF PORT O`CONNOR TO SAN LUIS PASS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. AT 1100 AM EDT...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FROM RIO SAN FERNANDO MEXICO NORTHWARD TO THE U.S. BORDER...AND A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM LA PESCA MEXICO NORTHWARD TO RIO SAN FERNANDO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO FROM THE BORDER WITH BELIZE TO CAMPECHE MEXICO. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.1N 89.5W AT 21/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 16 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT.......150NE 150SE 0SW 150NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 150SE 0SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.1N 89.5W AT 21/1500Z AT 21/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.6N 88.7W FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 23.0N 91.6W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...150NE 150SE 50SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 24.2N 93.8W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. 34 KT...150NE 150SE 50SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 25.1N 95.2W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 60NW. 34 KT...150NE 150SE 100SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 25.9N 96.4W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 75NE 75SE 40SW 75NW. 34 KT...150NE 150SE 100SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 26.5N 98.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 75NE 75SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...150NE 150SE 50SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 25/1200Z 27.0N 100.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 26/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.1N 89.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/2100Z $$ FORECASTER KNABB |
