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| #202371 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:52 PM 21.Jul.2008) TCPAT4 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM DOLLY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 6A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042008 700 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2008 ...DOLLY GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED AS IT JOGS WESTWARD... A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM RIO SAN FERNANDO MEXICO NORTHWARD...ACROSS THE BORDER BETWEEN MEXICO AND THE UNITED STATES...AND ALONG THE TEXAS COAST TO PORT O`CONNOR. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM LA PESCA NORTHWARD TO SOUTH OF RIO SAN FERNANDO...AND FOR THE TEXAS COAST FROM NORTH OF PORT O`CONNOR TO SAN LUIS PASS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATCH AREAS LATER TONIGHT. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 700 PM CDT...0000Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DOLLY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 91.8 WEST OR ABOUT 380 MILES...610 KM...EAST OF LA CRUZ MEXICO AND ABOUT 405 MILES...650 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS. OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS DOLLY HAS BEEN MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 16 MPH...25 KM/HR. HOWEVER...A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF DOLLY WILL BE MOVING OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...AND WILL BE NEAR THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO COAST BY WEDNESDAY. SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT DOLLY IS BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED... ALTHOUGH THE MAXIMUM WINDS REMAIN NEAR NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST...AND DOLLY IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE BEFORE REACHING THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO COAST. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES. DOLLY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF TWO TO FOUR INCHES ACROSS THE NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS UP TO SIX INCHES. REPEATING THE 700 PM CDT POSITION...23.1 N...91.8 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST NEAR 16 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 1000 PM CDT. $$ FORECASTER FRANKLIN |
