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| #202456 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:52 AM 22.Jul.2008) TCDAT3 TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 14 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032008 500 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2008 THE OVERALL SATELLITE PRESENTATION HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH SINCE AN EARLIER QUIKSCAT PASS WHICH INDICATED PEAK WINDS AROUND 50 KT. ACCORDINGLY...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 50 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. CRISTOBAL'S FORECAST TRACK TAKES THE CYCLONE OVER MUCH COOLER SSTS AS IT CROSSES THE NORTH WALL OF THE GULF STREAM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. PHASE SPACE DIAGRAMS FROM FLORIDA STATE UNIVERSITY INDICATE CRISTOBAL WILL TRANSITION TO AN EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER....SINCE THERE WILL BE LIMITED BAROCLINIC FORCING...WEAKENING APPEARS LIKELY. CRISTOBAL CONTINUES TO ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD WITH AN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 055/18. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO FOLLOWED BY A TURN EASTWARD BETWEEN 24-48 HOURS...THEN SOUTHEASTWARD AT DAY 3 AS THE CYCLONE MERGES WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING SOUTHWARD OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC. TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH ABOUT 48 HOURS BUT DIVERGES QUITE A BIT AT DAY 3. THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ESSENTIALLY AN UPDATE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 22/0900Z 39.1N 68.2W 50 KT 12HR VT 22/1800Z 41.0N 65.2W 45 KT 24HR VT 23/0600Z 43.4N 60.6W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 36HR VT 23/1800Z 44.0N 55.7W 35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 48HR VT 24/0600Z 43.3N 50.6W 35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 72HR VT 25/0600Z 40.0N 43.0W 30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 26/0600Z...ABSORBED $$ FORECASTER RHOME |
