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| #202508 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:55 AM 22.Jul.2008) TCDAT3 TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 15 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032008 1100 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2008 A 1013 SSMIS MICROWAVE PASS SHOWED A BANDED EYE STRUCTURE WITH CRISTOBAL...THOUGH IT ALSO INDICATED THE SURFACE CENTER WAS ON THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. BUOY 44011 ALSO SUGGESTS THE SURFACE CIRCULATION IS ELONGATED FROM SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST. HOWEVER...BECAUSE OF THE IMPROVING SATELLITE PRESENTATION...THE WINDS ARE INCREASED CONSERVATIVELY TO 55 KT. THIS SHOULD BE THE LAST HURRAH FOR CRISTOBAL AS THE CYCLONE HAS PASSED NORTH OF THE GULF STREAM INTO COOLER WATERS. A RAPID EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IS FORECAST BY ALL MODELS AND IS INDICATED BELOW. STEADY WEAKENING AS AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE IS FORECAST DUE TO A STRONG SHEARING ENVIRONMENT AND NO BAROCLINIC FORCING. CRISTOBAL IS REALLY START TO MOVE AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 050/22. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE SYNOPTIC REASONING FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST TODAY AND THEN EAST TOMORROW AS IT ROUNDS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. A TURN TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST IS FORECAST DUE TO AN APPROACHING MIDDLE-LATITUDE TROUGH AND THE SYSTEM SHOULD EITHER DISSIPATE AROUND 4 DAYS OR BE ABSORBED BY A FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF AND FASTER THAN THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 22/1500Z 40.9N 65.9W 55 KT 12HR VT 23/0000Z 42.9N 62.6W 50 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL 24HR VT 23/1200Z 44.5N 57.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 36HR VT 24/0000Z 44.0N 51.5W 35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 48HR VT 24/1200Z 42.5N 46.5W 30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 72HR VT 25/1200Z 39.0N 41.5W 25 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 26/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BLAKE |
