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| #202509 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:55 AM 22.Jul.2008) TCDAT4 TROPICAL STORM DOLLY DISCUSSION NUMBER 9 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042008 1100 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2008 REPORTS FROM A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE INDICATE THAT DOLLY IS GRADUALLY INTENSIFYING. THE SFMR ON BOARD OF THE PLANE REPORTED AN ISOLATED PEAK OF 65 KNOTS...A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 991 MB AND AN OPEN EYEWALL OF 20 NMI IN DIAMETER. SSMI DATA SHOWS THE EARLY STAGES OF A CONVECTING RING AROUND THE CENTER. CONVECTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGES REVEAL NUMEROUS CONVECTIVE BANDS WITH A LITTLE BETTER DEFINED OUTFLOW. BEST ESTIMATE OF INITIAL INTENSITY IS 60 KNOTS. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A LARGE 200 MB ANTICYCLONE OVER DOLLY. THIS UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN IN COMBINATION WITH WARM WATERS SHOULD RESULT IN STRENGTHENING. BOTH GFDL AND HWRF INTENSITY FORECASTS HAVE GONE UP AND DOWN WITH EACH RUN...BUT THE OVERALL TREND IS UPWARD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST BRINGS DOLLY TO 80 KNOTS AT LANDFALL...5 KNOTS HIGHER THAN INDICATED BY ALL GUIDANCE. FIXES FROM THE NOAA PLANE INDICATE THAT DOLLY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 10 KNOTS. A GENERAL NORTHWEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS INDICATED UNTIL LANDFALL ON WEDNESDAY. THEREAFTER...A RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD NORTH OF DOLLY AND THE CYCLONE SHOULD THEN TURN MORE TO WEST...BUT VERY SLOWLY. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND BRINGS THE CORE OF DOLLY NEAR THE MEXICO/US BORDER ON WEDNESDAY. IT SHOULD BE RE-EMPHASIZED THAT...DUE TO THE INHERENT UNCERTAINTIES...ONE MUST NOT FOCUS ON THE EXACT LANDFALL POINT IN THIS FORECAST. THE CENTER OF DOLLY IS BEGINNING TO SHOW UP ON BROWNSVILLE RADAR. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 22/1500Z 24.0N 94.5W 60 KT 12HR VT 23/0000Z 24.8N 95.6W 70 KT 24HR VT 23/1200Z 25.7N 97.0W 80 KT 36HR VT 24/0000Z 26.0N 98.0W 60 KT...INLAND 48HR VT 24/1200Z 26.0N 99.5W 40 KT...INLAND 72HR VT 25/1200Z 26.0N 102.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 26/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER AVILA |
