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| #202766 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:52 AM 23.Jul.2008) TCDAT4 HURRICANE DOLLY DISCUSSION NUMBER 12 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042008 500 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2008 AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER DROPSONDE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS FALLEN TO 976 MB...A RATHER SIGNIFICANT DECREASE OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. ALTHOUGH THE SFMR... DROPSONDE...AND FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND MEASUREMENTS UP TO NOW HAVE YIELDED 70 KT FOR THE CURRENT INTENSITY...I HAVE TOO MUCH RESPECT FOR THIS ABRUPT FALL IN PRESSURE TO NOT SHOW ANY INCREASE IN STRENGTH. THEREFORE THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS ADJUSTED TO 75 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. WSR-88D DOPPLER RADAR FROM BROWNSVILLE SHOWS A BANDING-TYPE EYE THAT IS TRYING TO CLOSE OFF ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN FEEDER BANDS OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. CIRRUS-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS FAIRLY WELL-ESTABLISHED. THERE IS STILL A WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR DOLLY TO STRENGTHEN AND THE HURRICANE COULD BE NEAR CATEGORY 2 INTENSITY BY THE TIME IT REACHES THE COAST. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE. INITIAL MOTION IS A SLIGHTLY SLOWER 310/7. THE TRACK FORECAST PHILOSPHY IS ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED. A MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE HURRICANE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY TODAY BUT REMAIN WELL-ESTABLISHED ENOUGH TO STEER THE HURRICANE ON A NORTHWESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD HEADING...WITH A SLIGHT ADDITIONAL DECELERATION. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASICALLY THE SAME AS BEFORE. THIS IS RIGHT ON TOP OF THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS. SHOULD DOLLY MOVE MORE SLOWLY OVER EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS THAN WE ARE FORECASTING...IT IS POSSIBLE FOR IT TO PRODUCE EVEN MORE RAINFALL THAN WE ARE CURRENTLY PREDICTING. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 23/0900Z 25.6N 96.5W 75 KT 12HR VT 23/1800Z 26.0N 97.4W 80 KT...INLAND 24HR VT 24/0600Z 26.3N 98.7W 45 KT...INLAND 36HR VT 24/1800Z 26.4N 100.5W 25 KT...INLAND 48HR VT 25/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER PASCH |
