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| #202822 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:09 AM 23.Jul.2008) TCDAT4 HURRICANE DOLLY DISCUSSION NUMBER 13 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042008 1100 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2008 DOLLY IS STRENGTHENING. THE MINIMUM PRESSURE HAS DROPPED TO 964 MB WITH A PEAK FLIGHT LEVEL WIND OF 92 KNOTS. DOPPLER WINDS FROM THE NWS RADAR AT BROWNSVILLE HAVE BEEN OSCILLATING BETWEEN 95 AND 109 KNOTS AROUND 2000 FEET ALTITUDE...AND THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION HAS IMPROVED SIGNIFICANTLY SINCE YESTERDAY. IT HAS NOW A RAGGED EYE ON BOTH VIS AND IR IMAGES. INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 85 KNOTS...MAKING DOLLY A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR/SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS BEFORE LANDFALL. RADAR AND AIRCRAFT FIXES INDICATE THAT DOLLY IS MOVING ON A GENERAL NORTHWEST TRACK OR 305 DEGREES AT ABOUT 6 KNOTS. HOWEVER...DOLLY IS EXPECTED TO SLOW DOWN A LITTLE...FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL TURN MORE TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST LATER TODAY. THIS TRACK SHOULD BRING THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE INLAND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THEREAFTER...A DEVELOPING MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES SHOULD FORCE THE CYCLONE ON A MORE WESTWARD TRACK. SHOULD DOLLY MOVE MORE SLOWLY OVER EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS THAN WE ARE FORECASTING...IT IS POSSIBLE FOR IT TO PRODUCE EVEN MORE RAINFALL THAN WE ARE CURRENTLY PREDICTING. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 23/1500Z 26.0N 97.0W 85 KT 12HR VT 24/0000Z 26.5N 97.8W 80 KT...INLAND 24HR VT 24/1200Z 27.0N 99.5W 45 KT...INLAND 36HR VT 25/0000Z 27.0N 101.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 48HR VT 25/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER AVILA |
