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| #202952 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:56 PM 23.Jul.2008) TCDAT4 HURRICANE DOLLY DISCUSSION NUMBER 14 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042008 500 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2008 THE EYE OF DOLLY MADE LANDFALL OVER SOUTHERN PADRE ISLAND EARLIER TODAY AS A BORDERLINE CATEGORY ONE TO CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR/SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. THE MINIMUM PRESSURE AT LANDFALL REPORTED BY THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 967 MB AND WINDS WERE ESTIMATED BETWEEN 80 AND 85 KNOTS. THE EYE IS NOW PARTIALLY INLAND OVER FAR SOUTH TEXAS AND BECAUSE THE CIRCULATION IS ALREADY INTERACTING WITH LAND...A GRADUAL WEAKENING HAS BEGUN. INITIAL INTENSITY IS ESTIMATED A 75 KNOTS AND A CONTINUED WEAKENING IS FORECAST AS DOLLY MOVES FARTHER INLAND. THE INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS CLOSELY THE INLAND DECAY SHIPS MODEL. DOLLY BEGAN TO MOVE ON A MORE STEADY NORTHWEST TRACK AT ABOUT 7 KNOTS. THE HURRICANE IS NOW LOCATED SOUTH OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES...THEREFORE...A GRADUAL TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND WEST IS ANTICIPATED UNTIL DISSIPATION IN ABOUT 48 HOURS. DOLLY IS A LARGE SLOW MOVING SYSTEM AND CAN CONTINUE TO PRODUCE VERY HEAVY RAINS DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 23/2100Z 26.6N 97.6W 75 KT 12HR VT 24/0600Z 27.0N 98.5W 45 KT...INLAND 24HR VT 24/1800Z 27.5N 99.5W 30 KT...INLAND 36HR VT 25/0600Z 28.0N 102.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 48HR VT 25/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER AVILA |
