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| #203109 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:53 PM 23.Jul.2008) TCDAT4 TROPICAL STORM DOLLY DISCUSSION NUMBER 15 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042008 1100 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2008 THE EYE REMAINS VERY WELL DEFINED IN THE BROWNSVILLE RADAR ALTHOUGH IT IS BECOMING LESS DISTINCT IN INFRARED IMAGERY. THE RADAR IS SHOWING SOME INBOUND VELOCITIES OF UP TO 78 KT OR SO AT ABOUT 2900 FT. THIS WOULD NORMALLY CORRESPOND TO MINIMAL HURRICANE FORCE AT THE SURFACE OVER WATER...BUT NOT OVER LAND...AND DOLLY IS DOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM ON THIS BASIS. CONTINUED WEAKENING IS FORECAST IN ACCORD WITH THE DECAY SHIPS MODEL...WITH DOLLY EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE OVER HIGHER TERRAIN IN 36-48 HOURS. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 280/6. THE LARGE SCALE MODELS SHOW THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE SLIDING EASTWARD A LITTLE BIT...TURNING DOLLY BACK TO A WEST-NORTHWESTERLY HEADING. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND NEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. EVEN AS THE WINDS SUBSIDE...DOLLY CONTINUES TO PRODUCE VERY HEAVY RAINS AND THE ASSOCIATED SIGNIFICANT FLOODING THREATS WILL CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER DAY OR TWO. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 24/0300Z 26.5N 98.1W 60 KT 12HR VT 24/1200Z 26.8N 99.0W 40 KT...INLAND 24HR VT 25/0000Z 27.6N 100.8W 30 KT...INLAND 36HR VT 25/1200Z 28.2N 103.2W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 48HR VT 26/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER FRANKLIN |
