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| #203168 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:52 AM 24.Jul.2008) TCDAT4 TROPICAL STORM DOLLY DISCUSSION NUMBER 16 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042008 500 AM EDT THU JUL 24 2008 THE CENTER OF DOLLY IS SLOWLY WOBBLING ALONG...WELL INLAND OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS...AT ABOUT 295/6. THE EYE IS ALMOST GONE FROM RADAR IMAGERY...BUT THE SURROUNDING RAIN SHIELD IS STILL QUITE SOLID...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHEASTERN SEMICIRCLE WHERE IT EXTENDS ALL THE WAY DOWN ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE AND EASTWARD BACK TO THE COAST. IN ADDITION...A FEW POTENT OUTER RAIN BANDS PERSIST NEAR AND JUST OFF THE COAST. WSR-88D VELOCITIES ADJUSTED FOR ALTITUDE SUGGEST SURFACE WINDS AS STRONG AS ABOUT 50 KT ALONG THE COASTLINE DUE EAST OF THE CENTER...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET TO 50 KT...AND THE COASTAL TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT. AS DOLLY PROCEEDS INLAND TODAY...WINDS WILL DIMINISH ALONG THE COAST...AND THE COASTAL TROPICAL STORM WARNING WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED LATER THIS MORNING. THE CURRENT WEST-NORTHWESTWARD HEADING SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...WITH PERHAPS A LITTLE INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED...AS DOLLY IS STEERED BY A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO ITS NORTH. THIS MOTION WILL TAKE THE CYCLONE FARTHER INLAND AND OVER INCREASINGLY RUGGED TERRAIN...SO DOLLY IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN TO A DEPRESSION WITHIN 24 HOURS...AND THE CIRCULATION IS NOT EXPECTED TO LAST FOR MORE THAN 36-48 HOURS. DESPITE THE FORECAST WEAKENING...DOLLY WILL CONTINUE TO DUMP VERY HEAVY RAINS FOR MANY MORE HOURS...SO A SIGNIFICANT POTENTIAL FOR INLAND FLOODING CONTINUES. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 24/0900Z 26.9N 98.6W 50 KT 12HR VT 24/1800Z 27.3N 99.8W 35 KT...INLAND 24HR VT 25/0600Z 27.9N 101.9W 25 KT...INLAND 36HR VT 25/1800Z 28.4N 104.1W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 48HR VT 26/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER KNABB |
