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| #203221 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:55 AM 24.Jul.2008) TCDAT4 TROPICAL STORM DOLLY DISCUSSION NUMBER 17 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042008 1100 AM EDT THU JUL 24 2008 RADAR AND SURFACE DATA INDICATE THAT DOLLY STILL HAS A LARGE CIRCULATION ACCOMPANIED BY NUMEROUS CONVECTIVE BANDS. THE MOST PROMINENT CONVECTION IS TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER. INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED TO 40 KNOTS. THERE ARE NUMEROUS OBSERVATIONS WITH GUSTS OF 45 TO 48 KNOTS EARLIER THISD MORNING. AS DOLLY MOVES FARTHER INLAND...IT IS EXPECTED TO TO WEAKEN AND SHOULD BE NO MORE THAN A REMNANT LOW IN A DAY OR SO. DESPITE WEAKENING... DOLLY HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE VERY HEAVY RAINS AND SIGNIFICANT INLAND FLOODING. THE CENTER OF DOLLY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST ABOUT 8 KNOTS. THE CYCLONE IS SOUTH OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SO THIS GENERAL TRACK SHOULD CONTINUE UNTIL DISSIPATION IN A DAY OR SO. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 24/1500Z 27.5N 99.3W 40 KT 12HR VT 25/0000Z 28.0N 100.5W 30 KT...INLAND 24HR VT 25/1200Z 28.5N 103.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 36HR VT 26/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER AVILA |
