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| #205305 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:40 PM 03.Aug.2008) TCDAT5 TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052008 1100 PM EDT SUN AUG 03 2008 THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE SET AT 45 KT BASED ON PEAK FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 54 KT AND A VISUAL ESTIMATE OF 55 KT PRIOR TO 00Z FROM THE AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT. SINCE THEN...CONVECTION OVER THE CENTER HAS LARGELY DIMINISHED...AND THE EARLIER INTENSIFICATION TREND HAS NO DOUBT STOPPED FOR THE TIME BEING. NORTHERLY SHEAR IS STILL AFFECTING THE CYCLONE...AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS SOME MID-LEVEL DRY AIR NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER. GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THIS SHEAR SHOULD DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AND EDOUARD COULD FIND ITSELF IN A DIFLUENT UPPER ENVIRONMENT THAT WOULD FAVOR INTENSIFICATION AS IT MOVES INTO THE NORTHWESTERN GULF. THE GFDL...SHIPS...LGEM...AND SUPERENSEMBLE ALL MAKE EDOUARD A HURRICANE. THE LATTER THREE MODELS...HOWEVER...ARE HEAVILY INFLUENCED BY THE RECENT STRENGTHENING TREND...A TREND WHICH IS NO LONGER OCCURRING. CONSEQUENTLY...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST LIES SLIGHTLY BELOW THIS GUIDANCE...BRINGING EDOUARD TO JUST BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 270/4. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TO THE WEST AND THEN WEST-NORTHWEST THROUGH LANDFALL AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL UNITED STATES. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO. HOWEVER...BECAUSE EDOUARD IS MOVING AT A VERY OBLIQUE ANGLE TO THE COASTLINE...SMALL ERRORS IN THE FORECAST TRACK WOULD RESULT IN LARGE DIFFERENCES IN THE LANDFALL LOCATION. CONSEQUENTLY...AND AS ILLUSTRATED BY THE NHC WIND SPEED PROBABILITY PRODUCT...THE CHANCES OF EXPERIENCING TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE ROUGHLY EQUAL FROM MORGAN CITY ALL THE WAY TO GALVESTON BAY. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS CLOSE TO THE CENTER OF A RELATIVELY NARROW GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 04/0300Z 28.1N 88.5W 45 KT 12HR VT 04/1200Z 28.2N 89.7W 45 KT 24HR VT 05/0000Z 28.6N 91.9W 50 KT 36HR VT 05/1200Z 29.3N 94.1W 60 KT 48HR VT 06/0000Z 30.0N 96.5W 40 KT...INLAND 72HR VT 07/0000Z 31.0N 101.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 08/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER FRANKLIN |
