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| #205350 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:55 AM 04.Aug.2008) TCDAT5 TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD DISCUSSION NUMBER 4 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052008 500 AM EDT MON AUG 04 2008 NORTHERLY VERTICAL SHEAR HAS BEEN DISRUPTING THE TROPICAL CYCLONE AND...A FEW HOURS AGO...THE CLOUD PATTERN OF EDOUARD BECAME QUITE DISORGANIZED AS THE LOW-CLOUD CENTER BECAME DISPLACED WELL NORTH OF THE MAIN AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION. WHEN THE AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS PENETRATED THE CENTER OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE JUST BEFORE 0600 UTC...THE CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS UP TO 1006 MB. IN FACT...BASED ON THE FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS AROUND THAT TIME...IT WAS DUBIOUS AS TO WHETHER EDOUARD WAS STILL A TROPICAL STORM. RECENT SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY SHOW THAT THE CYCLONE IS BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED HOWEVER AND THE HURRICANE HUNTERS REPORTED THAT THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAD FALLEN BACK TO 1002 MB. I ASSUME THAT THE AIRCRAFT WILL SOON FIND FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS CLOSE TO WHAT WAS OBSERVED YESTERDAY AND THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS MAINTAINED AT 45 KNOTS. GLOBAL MODEL PREDICTIONS OF THE UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC WINDS OVER THE AREA INDICATE THAT THE VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD LESSEN SOMEWHAT OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THEREFORE STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST ...SIMILAR TO WHAT WAS SHOWN IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. THIS IS CLOSE TO THE LATEST SHIPS GUIDANCE AS WELL AS THE INTENSITY MODEL CONSENSUS. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTIES IN PREDICTING THE INTENSITY OF TROPICAL CYCLONES...EVEN IN THE 24 HOUR TIME FRAME...IT IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE THAT EDOUARD COULD REACH THE COAST AS A HURRICANE. THEREFORE THE HURRICANE WATCH IS MAINTAINED FOR A PORTION OF THE NORTHWEST GULF COAST. THE CYCLONE HAS ACCELERATED TOWARD THE WEST AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 270/8. NO CHANGE IS MADE TO THE TRACK FORECAST REASONING. IT IS EXPECTED THAT EDOUARD WILL MOVE ON A GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD HEADING AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF AN AREA OF MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL UNITED STATES. THERE CONTINUES TO BE GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE ON THE FORECAST TRACK. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE TRAJECTORY OF THE PREVIOUS ONE BUT A LITTLE FASTER. AS ALWAYS...ONE SHOULD NOT FOCUS ON THE EXACT LOCATION AND TIME OF LANDFALL SHOWN BY THIS FORECAST. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 04/0900Z 28.1N 90.1W 45 KT 12HR VT 04/1800Z 28.4N 91.6W 50 KT 24HR VT 05/0600Z 29.0N 93.7W 60 KT 36HR VT 05/1800Z 29.7N 95.9W 50 KT...INLAND 48HR VT 06/0600Z 30.4N 98.1W 30 KT...INLAND 72HR VT 07/0600Z 31.5N 102.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 08/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER PASCH |
