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| #205552 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:55 AM 05.Aug.2008) TCDAT5 TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD DISCUSSION NUMBER 8 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052008 500 AM EDT TUE AUG 05 2008 WSR-88D DOPPLER RADAR DATA SHOW INCREASED ORGANIZATION OF THE STORM OVERNIGHT. SPIRAL BANDING FEATURES HAVE BECOME BETTER DEFINED...HOWEVER THERE IS STILL NOT MUCH EVIDENCE OF AN EYEWALL. PEAK DOPPLER VELOCITIES WERE NEAR 65 KT AT ELEVATIONS OF 3000-5000 FT AND THE AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER SFMR RECORDED SURFACE WINDS OF 53 AND 56 KT OVER THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT IN AN AREA OF VERY HEAVY RAIN. ADDITIONALLY...THE 850 MB FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS FROM THE HURRICANE HUNTERS WERE 68 KT OVER THE SAME AREA...CORRESPONDING TO A SURFACE WIND SPEED OF 54 KT. THEREFORE THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS NOW ESTIMATED TO BE 55 KT. THE SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA COASTAL WATERS HAVE A VERY HIGH SKIN TEMPERATURE BUT DO NOT HAVE A PARTICULARLY HIGH OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT. WATER VAPOR ANIMATION SUGGESTS THAT THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS DECREASING AND UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS INCREASING SO DYNAMICAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR SOME ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION IN THE SHORT TIME REMAINING BEFORE LANDFALL. EDOUARD MIGHT STILL BECOME A HURRICANE BEFORE CROSSING THE COAST BUT...AS NOTED EARLIER...THERE IS LITTLE PRACTICAL DIFFERENCE BETWEEN A STRONG TROPICAL STORM AND A LOW-END HURRICANE. THE INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS THE DECAY-SHIPS GUIDANCE RATHER CLOSELY. AIRCRAFT AND RADAR FIXES SHOW THAT THE MOTION IS A LITTLE FASTER AND TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ESTIMATE...AND IS NOW 300/10. THE STEERING FLOW FOR EDOUARD IS BEING PROVIDED BY A MID-TROPOSPHERIC ANTICYCLONE NEAR THE LOWER PORTION OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL PERSIST DURING AT LEAST THE NEXT 12 HOURS...BRINGING THE CENTER OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE INLAND WITHIN THE WARNING AREA LATER TODAY. BASED ON THE CURRENT MOTION WHICH IS A LITTLE MORE TO THE NORTH THAN EARLIER...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SHIFTED A BIT TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND IS JUST A LITTLE TO THE NORTH OF THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 05/0900Z 29.3N 93.4W 55 KT 12HR VT 05/1800Z 30.1N 95.1W 55 KT...INLAND 24HR VT 06/0600Z 31.0N 97.2W 35 KT...INLAND 36HR VT 06/1800Z 31.9N 99.3W 30 KT...INLAND 48HR VT 07/0600Z 32.8N 101.3W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 72HR VT 08/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER PASCH |
