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| #207770 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:55 PM 15.Aug.2008) TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM FAY DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062008 1100 PM EDT FRI AUG 15 2008 WE KNOW THAT THE CENTER OF FAY IS SOMEWHERE OVER HISPANIOLA AND THE IMMEDIATE UNKNOWN IS HOW MUCH OF FAY WILL EMERGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN WATERS IN ABOUT 12 HOUR OR SO. BY LOOKING AT THE IMPRESSIVE SATELLITE PRESENTATION WITH DEEP CONVECTION...OUTFLOW IN ALL QUADRANTS AND THE STEADY WESTWARD MOTION...IT IS FAIR TO ASSUME THAT FAY COULD SURVIVE THE HIGH MOUNTAINS OF HISPANIOLA AND MOVE ...ALTHOUGH WEAKER...OVER THE GULF OF GONAVE SATURDAY MORNING. IF SO...A NEW PROCESS OF INTENSIFICATION SHOULD BEGIN SINCE THE SHEAR IS LIGHT AND THE WATERS ARE VERY WARM SOUTH OF CUBA. ONLY THE INTERACTION WITH THE HIGH TERRAIN OF EASTERN CUBA WOULD IMPEDE STRENGTHENING. IN FACT...MOST OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE SUGGESTS STRENGTHENING WITH THE HWRF BEING THE MOST AGGRESSIVE...MAKING FAY A STRONG HURRICANE SOUTH OF CUBA AND EVEN A STRONGER ONE OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AFTER CROSSING CUBA. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS MORE CONSERVATIVE AND CALLS FOR A GRADUAL STRENGTHENING BUT SHOWS A LITTLE MORE INTENSIFICATION THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST SIMPLY BECAUSE FAY IS EXPECTED TO STAY LONGER OVER WATER IN THIS FORECAST. BECAUSE WE DO NOT KNOW WHERE THE CENTER IS...THE INITIAL MOTION IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. THE BEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL MOTION USING CONTINUITY AND THE MOTION OF THE OVERALL CLOUD MASS IS 275 DEGREES AT 12 KNOTS. FAY IS FORECAST TO MOVE ON THIS GENERAL TRACK FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO AROUND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. BUT IN 2 OR 3 DAYS...A MID-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO REACH THE GULF OF MEXICO ERODING THE RIDGE. THIS PATTERN SHOULD FORCE FAY TO TAKE A MORE NORTHWESTERLY AND NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY TRACK ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA AND THE EXTREME EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. ONE SHOULD MENTION HERE THAT IN GENERAL...MOST OF THE GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED WESTWARD AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE ENVELOPE. BEFORE I AM COMMITTED TO SHIFT THE TRACK FARTHER WEST...I WOULD RATHER WAIT TO SEE IF GUIDANCE BECOMES MORE STABLE FROM ONE RUN TO THE NEXT. IN SUMMARY...BOTH OFFICIAL FORECAST AND GUIDANCE SHOW AN INTENSIFYING TROPICAL CYCLONE MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA AND INTO THE EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. WE MUST PAY VERY CLOSE ATTENTION TO THE EVOLUTION OF THIS TROPICAL CYCLONE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 16/0300Z 18.7N 70.8W 40 KT 12HR VT 16/1200Z 18.8N 72.9W 35 KT 24HR VT 17/0000Z 19.3N 75.5W 40 KT 36HR VT 17/1200Z 20.0N 77.8W 50 KT...NEAR COAST OF CUBA 48HR VT 18/0000Z 21.0N 79.5W 60 KT 72HR VT 19/0000Z 24.0N 81.5W 70 KT 96HR VT 20/0000Z 27.5N 83.0W 75 KT 120HR VT 21/0000Z 31.0N 84.0W 40 KT...INLAND $$ FORECASTER AVILA |
